Urfels Anton, McDonald Andrew J, van Halsema Gerardo, Struik Paul C, Kumar Pankaj, Malik Ram K, Poonia S P, Singh Deepak K, Singh Madhulika, Krupnik Timothy J
Sustainable Intensification Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), South Asia Regional Office, Khumaltar, Lalitpur, Nepal.
Water Resources Management Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, Netherlands.
Agron Sustain Dev. 2021;41(2):14. doi: 10.1007/s13593-021-00668-1. Epub 2021 Feb 18.
Timely crop planting is a foundation for climate-resilient rice-wheat systems of the Eastern Gangetic Plains-a global food insecurity and poverty hotspot. We hypothesize that the capacity of individual farmers to plant on time varies considerably, shaped by multifaceted enabling factors and constraints that are poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, two complementary datasets were used to characterize drivers and decision processes that govern the timing of rice planting in this region. The first dataset was a large agricultural management survey (rice-wheat: = 15,245; of which rice: = 7597) from a broad geographic region that was analyzed by machine learning methods. The second dataset was a discussion-based survey ( = 112) from a more limited geography that we analyzed with graph theory tools to elicit nuanced information on planting decisions. By combining insights from these methods, we show for the first time that differences in rice planting times are primarily shaped by ecosystem and climate factors while social factors play a prominent secondary role. Monsoon onset, surface and groundwater availability, and land type determine village-scale mean planting times whereas, for resource-constrained farmers who tend to plant later , planting is further influenced by access to farm machinery, seed, fertilizer, and labor. Also, a critical threshold for economically efficient pumping appears at a groundwater depth of around 4.5 m; below this depth, farmers do not irrigate and delay planting. Without collective action to spread risk through synchronous timely planting, ecosystem factors such as threats posed by pests and wild animals may further deter early planting by individual farmers. Accordingly, we propose a three-pronged strategy that combines targeted strengthening of agricultural input chains, agroadvisory development, and coordinated rice planting and wildlife conservation to support climate-resilient agricultural development in the Eastern Gangetic Plains.
及时进行作物种植是恒河平原东部具备气候适应能力的稻麦系统的基础，该地区是全球粮食不安全和贫困的热点地区。我们推测，个体农民按时种植的能力差异很大，这受到多方面有利因素和制约因素的影响，而这些因素目前还鲜为人知。为了填补这一知识空白，我们使用了两个互补的数据集来描述该地区水稻种植时间的驱动因素和决策过程。第一个数据集是来自广泛地理区域的大型农业管理调查（稻麦：= 15245；其中水稻：= 7597），采用机器学习方法进行分析。第二个数据集是来自范围更有限地区的基于讨论的调查（= 112），我们使用图论工具进行分析，以获取有关种植决策的细微信息。通过结合这些方法的见解，我们首次表明，水稻种植时间的差异主要受生态系统和气候因素影响，而社会因素起次要但显著的作用。季风开始时间、地表水和地下水的可获得性以及土地类型决定了村庄层面的平均种植时间，而对于倾向于较晚种植的资源受限农民来说，种植还会进一步受到农机具、种子、化肥和劳动力获取情况的影响。此外，经济高效抽水的临界阈值出现在地下水位约4.5米处；低于这个深度，农民就不进行灌溉并推迟种植。如果没有通过同步及时种植来分散风险的集体行动，害虫和野生动物等生态系统因素可能会进一步阻碍个体农民提前种植。因此，我们提出了一项三管齐下的战略，即有针对性地加强农业投入链、发展农业咨询以及协调水稻种植和野生动物保护，以支持恒河平原东部具备气候适应能力的农业发展。
