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Estimating the COVID-19 R number: a bargain with the devil?

作者信息

Bauch Chris T

机构信息

Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada.

出版信息

Lancet Infect Dis. 2021 Feb;21(2):151-153. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30840-9. Epub 2020 Oct 22.

DOI:10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30840-9
PMID:33685645
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7581418/
Abstract
摘要

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本文引用的文献

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The temporal association of introducing and lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions with the time-varying reproduction number (R) of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study across 131 countries.引入和取消非药物干预措施与 SARS-CoV-2 时变繁殖数（R）之间的时间关联：131 个国家的建模研究。
Lancet Infect Dis. 2021 Feb;21(2):193-202. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30785-4. Epub 2020 Oct 22.
2
Local lockdowns outperform global lockdown on the far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve.局部封锁在新冠疫情曲线的远端优于全球封锁。
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Sep 29;117(39):24575-24580. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2014385117. Epub 2020 Sep 4.
3
Using a real-world network to model localized COVID-19 control strategies.利用真实世界网络模型来模拟本地化的 COVID-19 控制策略。
Nat Med. 2020 Oct;26(10):1616-1622. doi: 10.1038/s41591-020-1036-8. Epub 2020 Aug 7.
4
The implications of silent transmission for the control of COVID-19 outbreaks.静默传播对控制 COVID-19 疫情的影响。
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Jul 28;117(30):17513-17515. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2008373117. Epub 2020 Jul 6.
5
Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices.利用合成接触矩阵估计新型冠状病毒（SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19）的国家级基本繁殖数。
PLoS Comput Biol. 2020 Jul 2;16(7):e1008031. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008031. eCollection 2020 Jul.
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CMAJ. 2020 May 11;192(19):E497-E505. doi: 10.1503/cmaj.200476. Epub 2020 Apr 8.
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Dynamically modeling SARS and other newly emerging respiratory illnesses: past, present, and future.动态建模严重急性呼吸综合征及其他新出现的呼吸道疾病：过去、现在与未来。
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