Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America.
School of Journalism, University of Texas Austin, Austin, Texas, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2021 Mar 9;16(3):e0247487. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0247487. eCollection 2021.
The digital spread of misinformation is one of the leading threats to democracy, public health, and the global economy. Popular strategies for mitigating misinformation include crowdsourcing, machine learning, and media literacy programs that require social media users to classify news in binary terms as either true or false. However, research on peer influence suggests that framing decisions in binary terms can amplify judgment errors and limit social learning, whereas framing decisions in probabilistic terms can reliably improve judgments. In this preregistered experiment, we compare online peer networks that collaboratively evaluated the veracity of news by communicating either binary or probabilistic judgments. Exchanging probabilistic estimates of news veracity substantially improved individual and group judgments, with the effect of eliminating polarization in news evaluation. By contrast, exchanging binary classifications reduced social learning and maintained polarization. The benefits of probabilistic social learning are robust to participants' education, gender, race, income, religion, and partisanship.
错误信息的数字化传播是对民主、公共卫生和全球经济的主要威胁之一。减轻错误信息的流行策略包括众包、机器学习和媒体素养计划,这些策略要求社交媒体用户将新闻分类为真实或虚假的二元术语。然而,关于同伴影响的研究表明,将决策框定为二元术语会放大判断错误并限制社会学习,而将决策框定为概率术语可以可靠地改善判断。在这项预先注册的实验中,我们比较了通过交流二元或概率判断来合作评估新闻真实性的在线同伴网络。交流新闻真实性的概率估计大大改善了个人和群体的判断,消除了新闻评价中的极化现象。相比之下,交流二元分类减少了社会学习并保持了极化。概率社会学习的好处对参与者的教育、性别、种族、收入、宗教和党派立场具有很强的稳健性。