College of Tourism, Shandong Women's University, Jinan, China.
Key Lab of Guangdong for Utilization of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System, Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou, China.
PLoS One. 2021 Mar 11;16(3):e0248048. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248048. eCollection 2021.
Cholera, as an acute, high-risk and widespread infectious disease, has been studied by many scholars. Based on the data from <Annals of Epidemics in China over the Past 3000 Years>, this research investigated the spatial distribution of the cholera epidemic and natural environment mechanism of the cholera epidemic in the Jiangnan area, from the year 1820 to 1821. We applied a set of spatial statistical analyses to investigate the spatial heterogeneity and the factors that influence the cholera epidemic in the Jiangnan area. Results show that: 1) Spatial distribution of cholera epidemic lied at different geographical scales. The cholera epidemic was highly concentrated in Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou; There was a north-south difference of cholera epidemic distribution at the regional scale. The cholera epidemic was more concentrated in the north part than in the south part of the Jiangnan area; Meanwhile, there was an east-west difference in cholera epidemic distribution where the intensity of the cholera epidemic decreased from east to northwest and southwest. 2) A land-sea distribution of cholera can be also found. The Chang-Hang line and the Hu-Jia line were the two boundaries of the cholera epidemic in the Jiangnan area. 3) There was a close relationship between the distribution of the cholera epidemic and natural environment in the Jiangnan area. The influence intensity of natural factors on epidemic disasters followed the order of temperature (0.760) > precipitation (0.663) > river distance (0.413) > river density (0.398) > elevation (0.395). The present investigation is conductive to establish a prevention system for public health emergencies, which contributes to the sustainable development of society and human health.
霍乱作为一种急性、高危和广泛传播的传染病，一直受到许多学者的研究。本研究基于《中国过去 3000 年传染病编年史》中的数据，探讨了 1820 至 1821 年江南地区霍乱疫情的时空分布特征及其与自然环境的关系。运用一系列空间统计分析方法，研究了江南地区霍乱疫情的空间异质性及其影响因素。结果表明：1）霍乱疫情的空间分布存在不同的地理尺度。在上海市、南京市和杭州市等局部地区，霍乱疫情高度集中；在区域尺度上，霍乱疫情的南北分布存在差异，北方的疫情比南方更集中；同时，霍乱疫情的东西分布也存在差异，疫情强度从东向西和从东南向西北逐渐减弱。2）可以发现霍乱疫情存在海陆分布特征。长江-淮河线和胡焕庸线是江南地区霍乱疫情的两个边界。3）江南地区霍乱疫情的分布与自然环境密切相关。自然因素对疫情灾害的影响强度依次为温度（0.760）>降水（0.663）>河流距离（0.413）>河流密度（0.398）>海拔（0.395）。本研究有助于建立公共卫生突发事件的防控体系，促进社会和人类健康的可持续发展。
