Huang Jixia, Wang Jinfeng, Bo Yanchen, Xu Chengdong, Hu Maogui, Huang Dacang
State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2014 Mar 21;11(3):3407-23. doi: 10.3390/ijerph110303407.
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease, causing thousands of deaths among children in China over the past two decades. Environmental risk factors such as meteorological factors, population factors and economic factors may affect the incidence of HFMD. In the current paper, we used a novel model-geographical detector technique to analyze the effect of these factors on the incidence of HFMD in China. We collected HFMD cases from 2,309 counties during May 2008 in China. The monthly cumulative incidence of HFMD was calculated for children aged 0-9 years. Potential risk factors included meteorological factors, economic factors, and population density factors. Four geographical detectors (risk detector, factor detector, ecological detector, and interaction detector) were used to analyze the effects of some potential risk factors on the incidence of HFMD in China. We found that tertiary industry and children exert more influence than first industry and middle school students on the incidence of HFMD. The interactive effect of any two risk factors increases the hazard for HFMD transmission.
手足口病（HFMD）是一种常见的传染病，在过去二十年中导致中国数千名儿童死亡。气象因素、人口因素和经济因素等环境风险因素可能会影响手足口病的发病率。在本文中，我们使用了一种新颖的模型——地理探测器技术来分析这些因素对中国手足口病发病率的影响。我们收集了2008年5月中国2309个县的手足口病病例。计算了0至9岁儿童手足口病的月累计发病率。潜在风险因素包括气象因素、经济因素和人口密度因素。使用四种地理探测器（风险探测器、因素探测器、生态探测器和交互探测器）来分析一些潜在风险因素对中国手足口病发病率的影响。我们发现，第三产业和儿童对手足口病发病率的影响比第一产业和中学生更大。任何两个风险因素的交互作用都会增加手足口病传播的风险。
