Fujimoto Marie, Nishiura Hiroshi
Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Hokkaido, Japan.
National Hospital Organization Hokkaido Medical Center, Hokkaido, Japan.
Ann Transl Med. 2021 Feb;9(3):241. doi: 10.21037/atm-20-5784.
The quantitative measurement of the anticipated number of disaster deaths is very important shortly after the mainshock because the forecasted fatalities could help determine the size of the health and medical services team to be deployed. This study aimed to devise a simple method to predict the cumulative number of deaths during the immediate or early stage of a large earthquake.
We analyzed six earthquakes in Japan that involved at least 20 deaths, 1990-2018. Analyzing statistical patterns in the cumulative number of deaths, we used three models-the exponential model, the Weibull model, and the percentile-based model-to predict the likely number of deaths during the early stage of earthquakes.
The median time required to reach the median number of deaths was 2.2 (interquartile range: 1.5, 3.8) days from the mainshock. By only multiplying the cumulative number of deaths as on day 2 by a factor of two, the likely number of deaths was calculated using the percentile-based method. The validity of this simple method was better than the results from day 4 using the parametric models. The Great East Japan earthquake was exceptionally large and difficult to predict in real time, and it involved a large number of fatalities following a tsunami.
For all other earthquakes, the median number of deaths was reached on day 2. Even in a setting with poor technical resources, the predicted number of deaths can be obtained by multiplying the reported cumulative number on day 2 by a factor of two.
主震后不久，对预期灾难死亡人数进行定量测量非常重要，因为预测的死亡人数有助于确定要部署的卫生和医疗服务团队的规模。本研究旨在设计一种简单方法来预测大地震即刻或早期阶段的累积死亡人数。
我们分析了1990 - 2018年日本发生的至少造成20人死亡的6次地震。通过分析累积死亡人数的统计模式，我们使用了三种模型——指数模型、威布尔模型和基于百分位数的模型——来预测地震早期可能的死亡人数。
从主震到达到死亡人数中位数所需的中位时间为2.2天（四分位间距：1.5, 3.8）。仅将第2天的累积死亡人数乘以2，就可以使用基于百分位数的方法计算出可能的死亡人数。这种简单方法的有效性优于使用参数模型在第4天得出的结果。东日本大地震规模极大，难以实时预测，且海啸导致大量人员死亡。
对于所有其他地震，死亡人数中位数在第2天达到。即使在技术资源匮乏的情况下，通过将第2天报告的累积死亡人数乘以2也可以获得预测的死亡人数。
