EHESS, Paris School of Economics (PSE), Paris, France.
LEDa-LEGOS, CNRS, IRD, Paris-Dauphine University, PSL Research University, Paris, France.
Health Econ. 2021 May;30(5):1178-1199. doi: 10.1002/hec.4240. Epub 2021 Mar 12.
This paper investigates the impact of delaying retirement on mortality among the French population. We take advantage of the 1993 pension reform in the private sector to identify the causal effect of an increase in claiming age on mortality. We use administrative data which provide detailed information on career characteristics, dates of birth and death. Our results, precisely estimated, show that an exogenous increase of one year in the claiming age has no significant impact on the probability to die, measured between age 61 and 79, even when we allow for nonlinear effects of treatment intensity. To test the power of our sample to detect statistically significant effects for rare events like death, we compute minimum detectable effects (MDEs). Our MDE estimates suggest that, if an impact of later retirement on mortality would be detectable, it would remain very small in magnitude.
本文研究了延迟退休对法国人口死亡率的影响。我们利用私营部门 1993 年的养老金改革，来确定申领年龄增加对死亡率的因果效应。我们使用行政数据，这些数据提供了关于职业特征、出生日期和死亡日期的详细信息。我们的精确估计结果表明，申领年龄每增加一年，在 61 岁至 79 岁之间死亡的概率没有显著影响，即使我们允许治疗强度的非线性效应。为了检验我们的样本检测死亡等罕见事件的统计学显著影响的能力，我们计算了最小可检测效应（MDE）。我们的 MDE 估计表明，如果延迟退休对死亡率有影响，那么其影响幅度也非常小。
