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合并症情况下新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)的传播动态:一种基于数据驱动建模的方法。

Dynamics of COVID-19 transmission with comorbidity: a data driven modelling based approach.

作者信息

Das Parthasakha, Nadim Sk Shahid, Das Samhita, Das Pritha

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Engineering Science and Technology, Shibpur, Howrah 711103 India.

Agriculture and Ecological Research unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, 700108 India.

出版信息

Nonlinear Dyn. 2021;106(2):1197-1211. doi: 10.1007/s11071-021-06324-3. Epub 2021 Mar 8.

Abstract

An outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic is a major public health disease as well as a challenging task to people with comorbidity worldwide. According to a report, comorbidity enhances the risk factors with complications of COVID-19. Here, we propose and explore a mathematical framework to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with comorbidity. Within this framework, the model is calibrated by using new daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in India. The qualitative properties of the model and the stability of feasible equilibrium are studied. The model experiences the scenario of backward bifurcation by parameter regime accounting for progress in susceptibility to acquire infection by comorbidity individuals. The endemic equilibrium is asymptotically stable if recruitment of comorbidity becomes higher without acquiring the infection. Moreover, a larger backward bifurcation regime indicates the possibility of more infection in susceptible individuals. A dynamics in the mean fluctuation of the force of infection is investigated with different parameter regimes. A significant correlation is established between the force of infection and corresponding Shannon entropy under the same parameters, which provides evidence that infection reaches a significant proportion of the susceptible.

摘要

新冠疫情的爆发是一种重大的公共卫生疾病,对全球患有合并症的人来说也是一项具有挑战性的任务。根据一份报告,合并症会增加新冠并发症的风险因素。在此,我们提出并探索一个数学框架来研究伴有合并症的新冠传播动力学。在此框架内,该模型通过使用印度每日新增确诊的新冠病例进行校准。研究了模型的定性性质和可行平衡点的稳定性。该模型通过参数区域经历向后分支的情况,该参数区域考虑了合并症个体获得感染易感性的进展。如果合并症患者在未感染的情况下招募率更高,则地方病平衡点是渐近稳定的。此外,更大的向后分支区域表明易感个体中感染的可能性更大。研究了不同参数区域下感染力平均波动的动态变化。在相同参数下,感染力与相应的香农熵之间建立了显著的相关性,这为感染在易感人群中达到显著比例提供了证据。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b54f/7937518/cacb5b54642b/11071_2021_6324_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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