An analytical approach for assessment of geographical variation in ecosystem service intensity in Punjab, Pakistan.

Ecosystem services (ESs) are a diverse range of environmental properties that have significant effects on both landscape characteristics and human well-being, an understanding of the spatial variation of which is required for effective ecosystem management and conservation. In this study, we aimed to identify the geographical variation in ESs and examine the factors impacting ESs in Punjab Province, Pakistan. We evaluated ecosystem service intensity (ESI) by using the benefit transfer method and investigated the spatial heterogeneity of ESIs at the tehsil level by using an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) model and semivariance analysis. This analysis indicated that spatial distribution of ESI shows significant and optimal spatial heterogeneity of ESs, revealing several hot and cold spots for ESI transformation in the study area. The ESI decreased from east to west and north to south, with a trough in the metropolitan zones, including Lahore, Sheikhupura, Faisalabad, and Multan, which was in accordance with the land use/cover pattern. Furthermore, using geographically weighted regression (GWR) analysis, we also identified geographical clusters within which land use/cover pressure and population growth were significantly positively associated with ESI across the province, based on a lag distance scale. The findings of this study have functional economic implications with respect to highlighting areas worthy of conservation and designing ecological corridors to enhance the delivery of ESs for regional benefits.