Oude Groeniger Joost, Noordzij Kjell, van der Waal Jeroen, de Koster Willem
Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Centre, PO Box 2040, 3000, CA, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Department of Public Administration and Sociology, Erasmus University Rotterdam, PO Box 1738, 3000, DR, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Department of Public Administration and Sociology, Erasmus University Rotterdam, PO Box 1738, 3000, DR, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Soc Sci Med. 2021 Apr;275:113819. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.113819. Epub 2021 Mar 5.
Many governments have implemented strict lockdown measures to prevent the transmission of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). Compliance with these restrictions is vital and depends greatly on the level of trust in the institutions central to their development and implementation. The objectives of this study were to assess: (1) the effects of the Dutch lockdown measures imposed in March 2020 on trust in government and trust in science; and (2) whether these differ across social groups. We draw on unique data from the high-quality Longitudinal Internet Studies for the Social Sciences panel, which comprises a true probability sample of Dutch households (average participation rate: 80.4%). Our data were collected on an ongoing basis from December 2017 to March 2020 (n = 2219). Using the implementation of lockdown measures in mid-March as a natural experiment, we employed difference-in-differences analyses to assess the causal effect of the Dutch lockdown measures on trust in government and trust in science. We estimated that the imposition of the measures caused an 18% increase (95% confidence interval (CI):15%-21%)) in trust in government and a 6% increase (95% CI: 4%-8%) in trust in science. The impact on trust in government was greater among the participants aged 65 and older and those with poor self-assessed health, although the relevant CIs were wide and, in the case of self-assessed health, included the null. No differential effects were observed for trust in science. Our study indicates that the strict public-health measures imposed in the Netherlands during an acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic generated trust in the institutions involved in drafting and implementing them, especially among those with a higher risk of serious health outcomes. This suggests that, to prevent a major public-health crisis, people appreciate firm government intervention during the acute phase of an infectious disease pandemic.
许多政府已实施严格的封锁措施以防止新型冠状病毒（SARS-CoV-2）传播。遵守这些限制至关重要，并且在很大程度上取决于对这些措施制定和实施所依赖机构的信任程度。本研究的目的是评估：（1）2020年3月荷兰实施的封锁措施对政府信任和科学信任的影响；（2）这些影响在不同社会群体中是否存在差异。我们利用了社会科学高质量纵向互联网研究小组的独特数据，该小组由荷兰家庭的真实概率样本组成（平均参与率：80.4%）。我们的数据从2017年12月持续收集至2020年3月（n = 2219）。以3月中旬实施的封锁措施作为自然实验，我们采用差分分析来评估荷兰封锁措施对政府信任和科学信任的因果效应。我们估计，这些措施的实施使政府信任度提高了18%（95%置信区间（CI）：15%-21%）），科学信任度提高了6%（95%CI：4%-8%）。65岁及以上参与者以及自我评估健康状况较差的参与者对政府信任的影响更大，尽管相关置信区间较宽，就自我评估健康状况而言，还包括零效应。在科学信任方面未观察到差异效应。我们的研究表明，在新冠疫情急性期荷兰实施的严格公共卫生措施产生了对参与起草和实施这些措施机构的信任，尤其是在那些有更高严重健康后果风险的人群中。这表明，为防止重大公共卫生危机，人们在传染病疫情急性期赞赏政府的坚定干预。
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