University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America.
Institut national d'études démographiques (Ined), Paris, France.
PLoS One. 2021 Mar 17;16(3):e0248072. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248072. eCollection 2021.
The spread of COVID-19 and resulting local and national lockdowns have a host of potential consequences for demographic trends. While impacts on mortality and, to some extent, short-term migration flows are beginning to be documented, it is too early to measure actual consequences for family demography. To gain insight into potential future consequences of the lockdown for family demography, we use cross-national Google Trends search data to explore whether trends in searches for words related to fertility, relationship formation, and relationship dissolution changed following lockdowns compared to average, pre-lockdown levels in Europe and the United States. Because lockdowns were not widely anticipated or simultaneous in timing or intensity, we exploit variability over time and between countries (and U.S. states). We use a panel event-study design and difference-in-differences methods, and account for seasonal trends and average country-level (or state-level) differences in searches. We find statistically significant impacts of lockdown timing on changes in searches for terms such as wedding and those related to condom use, emergency contraception, pregnancy tests, and abortion, but little evidence of changes in searches related to fertility. Impacts for union formation and dissolution tended to only be statistically significant at the start of a lockdown with a return to average-levels about 2 to 3 months after lockdown initiation, particularly in Europe. Compared to Europe, returns to average search levels were less evident for the U.S., even 2 to 3 months after lockdowns were introduced. This may be due to the fact, in the U.S., health and social policy responses were less demarcated than in Europe, such that economic uncertainty was likely of larger magnitude. Such pandemic-related economic uncertainty may therefore have the potential to slightly increase already existing polarization in family formation behaviours in the U.S. Alongside contributing to the wider literature on economic uncertainty and family behaviors, this paper also proposes strategies for efficient use of Google Trends data, such as making relative comparisons and testing sensitivity to outliers, and provides a template and cautions for their use in demographic research when actual demographic trends data are not yet available.
COVID-19 的传播以及由此导致的当地和全国性封锁对人口趋势有一系列潜在影响。虽然死亡率的影响以及在一定程度上短期移民流动的影响开始被记录下来，但要衡量封锁对家庭人口统计学的实际影响还为时过早。为了深入了解封锁对家庭人口统计学的潜在未来影响，我们使用跨国谷歌趋势搜索数据来探讨与生育、关系形成和关系解体相关的词汇搜索趋势在封锁后是否与欧洲和美国的平均、封锁前水平发生了变化。由于封锁的时间、强度或同时性没有被广泛预期，我们利用了时间和国家（以及美国各州）之间的可变性。我们使用面板事件研究设计和差分差异方法，并考虑了季节性趋势以及国家（或州）层面的搜索平均差异。我们发现，封锁时间对婚礼和与避孕套使用、紧急避孕、怀孕测试和堕胎相关的术语搜索的变化有统计学上的显著影响，但几乎没有证据表明与生育相关的搜索发生了变化。在封锁开始时，对联盟形成和解体的影响往往只有统计学意义，大约在封锁开始后 2 到 3 个月才能恢复到平均水平，特别是在欧洲。与欧洲相比，美国的搜索水平恢复到平均水平的情况不太明显，即使在封锁开始后 2 到 3 个月也是如此。这可能是因为在美国，卫生和社会政策的反应不如欧洲明确，因此经济不确定性可能更大。因此，这种与大流行相关的经济不确定性可能会略微增加美国已经存在的家庭形成行为两极分化。除了为经济不确定性和家庭行为的更广泛文献做出贡献外，本文还提出了有效利用谷歌趋势数据的策略，例如进行相对比较和测试对异常值的敏感性，并提供了一个模板和在实际人口趋势数据不可用时用于人口研究的注意事项。
