University of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
Insper, São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
PLoS One. 2023 Aug 11;18(8):e0289604. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0289604. eCollection 2023.
hether the COVID-19 pandemic has changed fertility patterns is still an open question, as social isolation for long periods can impact the number of conceptions in many ways. We combine administrative data on all recent births in Brazil with daily data on individual location to estimate the relationship between the share of individuals staying close to their homes in each week and the number of conceptions in that same week, comparing municipalities with different social isolation patterns during the first semester of 2020. We find that conceptions unequivocally decline when social isolation increases. The effect is stronger for women who are between 21 and 25 years old and more educated, as well as for richer, larger, and more urban municipalities. COVID-19 is likely to change fertility across countries depending on the behavior of the population and on the lock-down measures implemented to fight the pandemic.
新冠疫情是否改变了生育模式仍未有定论，因为长时间的社交隔离可能会以多种方式影响受孕数量。我们将巴西所有近期出生的婴儿的行政数据与个人位置的每日数据相结合，以评估同一周内个体居家比例与同一周内受孕数量之间的关系，比较了 2020 年上半年社交隔离模式不同的城市。我们发现，随着社交隔离程度的增加，受孕数量无疑会下降。这种影响对于 21 至 25 岁之间、受教育程度更高、更富裕、更大、更城市化的城市的女性来说更为明显。新冠疫情可能会根据各国人口的行为和为抗击疫情而实施的封锁措施来改变生育模式。
