Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
School of Marine and Environmental Programs, University of New England, Biddeford, ME, USA.
Nature. 2021 Mar;591(7850):396-401. doi: 10.1038/s41586-021-03327-3. Epub 2021 Mar 17.
The future of the global ocean economy is currently envisioned as advancing towards a 'blue economy'-socially equitable, environmentally sustainable and economically viable ocean industries. However, tensions exist within sustainable development approaches, arising from differing perspectives framed around natural capital or social equity. Here we show that there are stark differences in outlook on the capacity for establishing a blue economy, and on its potential outcomes, when social conditions and governance capacity-not just resource availability-are considered, and we highlight limits to establishing multiple overlapping industries. This is reflected by an analysis using a fuzzy logic model to integrate indicators from multiple disciplines and to evaluate their current capacity to contribute to establishing equitable, sustainable and viable ocean sectors consistent with a blue economy approach. We find that the key differences in the capacity of regions to achieve a blue economy are not due to available natural resources, but include factors such as national stability, corruption and infrastructure, which can be improved through targeted investments and cross-scale cooperation. Knowledge gaps can be addressed by integrating historical natural and social science information on the drivers and outcomes of resource use and management, thus identifying equitable pathways to establishing or transforming ocean sectors. Our results suggest that policymakers must engage researchers and stakeholders to promote evidence-based, collaborative planning that ensures that sectors are chosen carefully, that local benefits are prioritized, and that the blue economy delivers on its social, environmental and economic goals.
目前，人们预计全球海洋经济的未来将朝着“蓝色经济”发展，即社会公平、环境可持续和经济可行的海洋产业。然而，可持续发展方法之间存在紧张关系，这是由于围绕自然资本或社会公平的不同观点造成的。在这里，我们表明，当考虑社会条件和治理能力——不仅仅是资源可用性时，对于建立蓝色经济的能力以及其潜在结果，存在明显的不同看法，并且我们强调了建立多个重叠产业的局限性。这反映在使用模糊逻辑模型进行的分析中，该模型整合了来自多个学科的指标，并评估了它们目前为建立符合蓝色经济方法的公平、可持续和可行的海洋部门做出贡献的能力。我们发现，区域实现蓝色经济能力的关键差异不是由于可用的自然资源，而是包括国家稳定、腐败和基础设施等因素，这些因素可以通过有针对性的投资和跨尺度合作来改善。可以通过整合关于资源利用和管理的驱动因素和结果的历史自然和社会科学信息来解决知识差距，从而确定建立或转型海洋部门的公平途径。我们的研究结果表明，政策制定者必须让研究人员和利益相关者参与进来，以促进基于证据的协作规划，确保谨慎选择部门，优先考虑当地利益，并使蓝色经济实现其社会、环境和经济目标。
