School of Management Engineering and E-commerce, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou, China.
J Med Virol. 2021 Jul;93(7):4342-4350. doi: 10.1002/jmv.26945. Epub 2021 Apr 1.
In this paper, we propose a new susceptible-vaccinated-exposed-infected-recovered with unaware-aware (SEIR/V-UA) model to study the mutual effect between the epidemic spreading and information diffusion. We investigate the dynamic processes of the model with a Kinetic equation and derive the expression for epidemic stability by the eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix. Then, we validate the model by the Monte Carlo method and numerical simulation on a two-layer scale-free network. With the outbreak of COVID-19, the spread of the epidemic in China prompted drastic measures for transmission containment. We examine the effects of these interventions based on modeling of the information-epidemic and the data of the COVID-19 epidemic case. The results further demonstrate that the epidemic spread can be affected by the effective transmission rate of awareness.
在本文中，我们提出了一个新的易感染-疫苗接种-暴露-感染-恢复与无症状-有症状（SEIR/V-UA）模型，以研究疫情传播和信息扩散之间的相互作用。我们使用动力学方程研究模型的动态过程，并通过雅可比矩阵的特征值推导出疫情稳定性的表达式。然后，我们使用两层无标度网络上的蒙特卡罗方法和数值模拟对模型进行验证。随着 COVID-19 的爆发，中国疫情的传播促使采取了严格的传播控制措施。我们根据信息-疫情模型和 COVID-19 疫情病例数据来研究这些干预措施的效果。结果进一步表明，疫情传播可以受到意识有效传播率的影响。
