Koeppel Katja Natalie, van Schalkwyk Ockert Louis, Thompson Peter N
Department of Production Animal Studies, Faculty of Veterinary Science, University of Pretoria, Onderstepoort, South Africa.
Centre for Veterinary Wildlife Studies, Faculty of Veterinary Sciences, University of Pretoria, Onderstepoort, South Africa.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2022 Mar;69(2):836-848. doi: 10.1111/tbed.14080. Epub 2021 Apr 27.
Rabies is a global viral zoonosis endemic to South Africa, resulting in fatal encephalitis in warm-blooded animals, including humans. The loss of human lives and economic losses in rural areas through loss of livestock are substantial. A review was conducted of all confirmed animal rabies cases in South Africa from 1993 to 2019, with a total of 11 701 cases identified to species level to assess the role that wildlife plays in the epidemiology of rabies. A spatio-temporal cluster analysis using a discrete Poisson space-time probability model, accounting for underlying estimated dog and livestock densities, identified 13 significant clusters (p < .05). These included four long-term clusters lasting more than 8 years in duration and seven short-term clusters lasting less than 2 years, with the remaining two clusters being of intermediate length. Outside of these endemic clusters, wildlife outbreaks in the remainder of South Africa were often less than one and a half years in duration most likely due to the rapid decline of wildlife vectors, especially jackals associated with rabies infection. Domestic dogs accounted for 59.8% of cases, with domestic cats (3.2%), livestock (21.1%) and wildlife (15.8%) making up the remainder of the cases. Yellow mongoose (Cynictis penicillata) was the most frequently affected wildlife species, followed by bat-eared fox (Otocyon megalotis), black-backed jackal (Canis mesomelas), meerkat (Suricata suricatta) and aardwolf (Proteles cristatus). Rabies in wildlife species followed different spatial distributions: black-backed jackal cases were more common in the north-western parts of South Africa, yellow mongoose cases more frequent in central South Africa, and bat-eared fox and aardwolf cases were more frequent in southern and western South Africa. Clusters often spanned several provinces, showing the importance of coordinated rabies control campaigns across administrative boundaries, and high-risk areas were highlighted for rabies in South Africa.
狂犬病是一种在南非流行的全球性病毒性人畜共患病，可导致包括人类在内的温血动物发生致命性脑炎。农村地区因牲畜损失造成的人员伤亡和经济损失巨大。对1993年至2019年南非所有确诊的动物狂犬病病例进行了回顾，共确定了11701例至物种水平的病例，以评估野生动物在狂犬病流行病学中所起的作用。使用离散泊松时空概率模型进行时空聚类分析，并考虑潜在的估计犬类和牲畜密度，确定了13个显著聚类（p < 0.05）。其中包括4个持续时间超过8年的长期聚类和7个持续时间少于2年的短期聚类，其余2个聚类为中等长度。在这些地方性聚类之外，南非其他地区的野生动物疫情持续时间通常不到一年半，这很可能是由于野生动物传播媒介迅速减少，尤其是与狂犬病感染相关的豺狼。家犬占病例的59.8%，其余病例由家猫（3.2%）、牲畜（21.1%）和野生动物（15.8%）构成。黄獴（Cynictis penicillata）是受影响最频繁的野生动物物种，其次是蝙蝠耳狐（Otocyon megalotis）、黑背豺（Canis mesomelas）、狐獴（Suricata suricatta）和土狼（Proteles cristatus）。野生动物物种中的狂犬病呈现不同的空间分布：黑背豺病例在南非西北部更为常见，黄獴病例在南非中部更为频繁，而蝙蝠耳狐和土狼病例在南非南部和西部更为频繁。聚类通常跨越多个省份，这表明跨行政边界开展协调一致的狂犬病防控活动的重要性，并突出了南非狂犬病的高风险地区。
