Boutelle Cassandra, Mollentze Nardus, Gigante Crystal, Rocha Felipe, Vigilato Marco A N, Streicker Daniel G, Wallace Ryan
Poxvirus and Rabies Branch, United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jun 2;15(1):19306. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-98986-x.
Rabies virus (RABV) host-shift events (HSEs) are thought to be promoted by viral genomic and ecological factors, but the relative balance of the two is unclear. Using a dataset of 19,170 species pairs that were known or not known to be linked by an HSE, we developed a logistic regression model to explore how biological and ecological characteristics of cross-species infections and their associated RABV variant (RVV) influence HSE risk. The model incorporates relatedness, body temperature, litter size, adult weight, and the broad lineage (bat or canine) of the RABV variant maintained by the reservoir species. Assessed with leave-one-out cross validation, the model identifies known HSEs with 90% accuracy (sensitivity 90%, specificity 82%). The susceptible-reservoir infection on each continent with the highest risk of HSE are coyotes with Canine-associated RVVs (North/Central America, RR = 187.0), culpeos with Canine-associated RVVs (South America, 100.9), dholes with Canine-associated RVVs (Asia, 159.8), arctic foxes with Raccoon Dog RVV (Europe, 115.8), and African wild dogs with Canine-associated RVVs (Africa, 134.8). The results of this model can be used to help predict the next HSE, identify potential cryptic RABV reservoirs, inform contingency actions when a high-risk event is identified, and prepare for importation or incursion events.
狂犬病病毒（RABV）宿主转换事件（HSEs）被认为是由病毒基因组和生态因素促成的，但两者的相对平衡尚不清楚。我们利用一个包含19170个物种对的数据集（这些物种对已知或未知通过宿主转换事件相联系），开发了一个逻辑回归模型，以探究跨物种感染及其相关狂犬病病毒变体（RVV）的生物学和生态特征如何影响宿主转换事件的风险。该模型纳入了亲缘关系、体温、产仔数、成年体重以及储存宿主物种所维持的狂犬病病毒变体的广泛谱系（蝙蝠或犬科）。通过留一法交叉验证评估，该模型识别已知宿主转换事件的准确率为90%（敏感性90%，特异性82%）。各大洲宿主转换事件风险最高的易感染储存宿主感染情况为：与犬科相关狂犬病病毒变体的郊狼（北美/中美洲，相对风险RR = 187.0）、与犬科相关狂犬病病毒变体的 Culpeo狐（南美洲，100.9）、与犬科相关狂犬病病毒变体的豺（亚洲，159.8）、携带貉狂犬病病毒变体的北极狐（欧洲，115.8）以及与犬科相关狂犬病病毒变体的非洲野犬（非洲，134.8）。该模型的结果可用于帮助预测下一次宿主转换事件、识别潜在的隐匿性狂犬病病毒储存宿主、在识别高风险事件时为应急行动提供信息以及为输入或入侵事件做好准备。
