Haridy Salah, Maged Ahmed, Baker Arthur W, Shamsuzzaman Mohammad, Bashir Hamdi, Xie Min
Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, College of Engineering, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates.
Benha Faculty of Engineering, Benha University, Benha, Egypt.
Comput Ind Eng. 2021 Jun;156:107235. doi: 10.1016/j.cie.2021.107235. Epub 2021 Mar 16.
In December 2019, an outbreak of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 [SARS-CoV-2]) began in Wuhan, China. SARS-CoV-2 exhibited efficient person-to-person transmission of what became labeled as COVID-19. It has spread worldwide with over 83,000,000 infected cases and more than 1,800,000 deaths to date (December 31, 2020). This research proposes a statistical monitoring scheme in which an optimized np control chart is utilized by sentinel metropolitan airports worldwide for early detection of coronavirus and other respiratory virus outbreaks. The sample size of this chart is optimized to ensure the best overall performance for detecting a wide range of shifts in the infection rate, based on the available resources, such as the inspection rate and the allowable false alarm rate. The effectiveness of the proposed optimized np chart is compared with that of the traditional np chart with a predetermined sample size under both sampling inspection and 100% inspection. For a variety of scenarios including a real case, the optimized np control chart is found to substantially outperform its traditional counterpart in terms of the average number of infections. Therefore, this control chart has potential to be an effective tool for early detection of respiratory virus outbreaks, promoting early outbreak investigation and mitigation.
2019年12月，一种新型冠状病毒（严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2 [SARS-CoV-2]）引发的肺炎疫情在中国武汉爆发。SARS-CoV-2表现出高效的人际传播，这种疾病后来被称为COVID-19。截至2020年12月31日，它已在全球范围内传播，感染病例超过8300万例，死亡人数超过180万例。本研究提出了一种统计监测方案，全球各主要都市机场利用优化的np控制图来早期检测冠状病毒和其他呼吸道病毒疫情。该控制图的样本量经过优化，以根据可用资源（如检测率和允许的误报率）确保在检测感染率的广泛变化时具有最佳的整体性能。在抽样检验和100%检验两种情况下，将所提出的优化np控制图的有效性与具有预定样本量的传统np控制图进行了比较。对于包括实际案例在内的各种情况，发现优化的np控制图在平均感染人数方面大大优于传统控制图。因此，这种控制图有可能成为早期检测呼吸道病毒疫情、促进早期疫情调查和缓解的有效工具。
