Odagaki Takashi
Kyushu University, Nishiku, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan.
Research Institute for Science Education, Inc., Kitaku, Kyoto 603-8346, Japan.
Physica A. 2021 Jul 1;573:125925. doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2021.125925. Epub 2021 Mar 18.
On the basis of a compartment model, the epidemic curve is investigated when the net rate of change of the number of infected individuals is given by an ellipse in the - plane which is supported in . With , it is shown that (1) when , oscillation of the infection curve is self-organized and the period of the oscillation is in proportion to the ratio of the difference and the geometric mean of and , (2) when , the infection curve shows a critical behavior where it decays obeying a power law function with exponent in the long time limit after a peak, and (3) when , the infection curve decays exponentially in the long time limit after a peak. The present result indicates that the pandemic can be controlled by a measure which makes .
基于一个隔室模型，当感染个体数量的净变化率由(x - y)平面上支撑在(\cdots)中的椭圆给出时，研究了流行曲线。对于(\cdots)，结果表明：（1）当(\cdots)时，感染曲线的振荡是自组织的，振荡周期与(\cdots)的差与几何平均值的比值成比例；（2）当(\cdots)时，感染曲线表现出临界行为，即在达到峰值后的长时间极限中，它遵循幂律函数衰减，指数为(\cdots)；（3）当(\cdots)时，感染曲线在达到峰值后的长时间极限中呈指数衰减。目前的结果表明，通过使(\cdots)的措施可以控制大流行。
