Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Medford, MA, USA.
Department of Medicine, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Nat Commun. 2021 Mar 26;12(1):1915. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-22194-0.
Water scarcity is dynamic and complex, emerging from the combined influences of climate change, basin-level water resources, and managed systems' adaptive capacities. Beyond geophysical stressors and responses, it is critical to also consider how multi-sector, multi-scale economic teleconnections mitigate or exacerbate water shortages. Here, we contribute a global-to-basin-scale exploratory analysis of potential water scarcity impacts by linking a global human-Earth system model, a global hydrologic model, and a metric for the loss of economic surplus due to resource shortages. We find that, dependent on scenario assumptions, major hydrologic basins can experience strongly positive or strongly negative economic impacts due to global trade dynamics and market adaptations to regional scarcity. In many cases, market adaptation profoundly magnifies economic uncertainty relative to hydrologic uncertainty. Our analysis finds that impactful scenarios are often combinations of standard scenarios, showcasing that planners cannot presume drivers of uncertainty in complex adaptive systems.
水资源短缺具有动态性和复杂性，是气候变化、流域水资源和管理系统适应能力综合影响的结果。除了地球物理压力源及其响应，还需要考虑多部门、多尺度的经济联系如何减轻或加剧水资源短缺。在这里，我们通过将一个全球人类-地球系统模型、一个全球水文模型和一个因资源短缺导致经济盈余损失的指标联系起来，对潜在水资源短缺的影响进行了从全球到流域尺度的探索性分析。我们发现，根据情景假设，主要的水文流域可能会因全球贸易动态和市场对区域短缺的适应而经历强烈的正面或负面的经济影响。在许多情况下，市场适应相对于水文不确定性极大地放大了经济不确定性。我们的分析发现，有影响的情景通常是标准情景的组合，这表明规划者不能假设复杂适应系统中不确定性的驱动因素。
