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具有分数阶导数且实施隔离策略存在延迟的新冠肺炎模型的稳定性分析

Stability analysis of COVID-19 model with fractional-order derivative and a delay in implementing the quarantine strategy.

作者信息

Hikal M M, Elsheikh M M A, Zahra W K

机构信息

Departement of Engineering Physics and Mathematics, Faculty of Engineering, Tanta University, Tanta, Egypt.

Department of Basic Sciences, Higher Institute of Engineering and Technology Kafrelsheikh, Kafr El Sheikh, Egypt.

出版信息

J Appl Math Comput. 2022;68(1):295-321. doi: 10.1007/s12190-021-01515-y. Epub 2021 Mar 22.

Abstract

This study presents methods of hygiene and the use of masks to control the disease. The zero basic reproduction number can be achieved by taking the necessary precautionary measures that prevent the transmission of infection, especially from uninfected virus carriers. The existence of time delay in implementing the quarantine strategy and the threshold values of the time delay that keeping the stability of the system are established. Also, it is found that keeping the infected people quarantined immediately is very important in combating and controlling the spread of the disease. Also, for special cases of the system parameters, the time delay can not affect the asymptotic behavior of the disease. Finally, numerical simulations have been illustrated to validate the theoretical analysis of the proposed model.

摘要

本研究提出了卫生方法及使用口罩来控制该疾病。通过采取预防感染传播的必要预防措施,特别是防止未感染病毒携带者传播感染,可实现零基本繁殖数。确定了实施隔离策略时存在的时间延迟以及保持系统稳定性的时间延迟阈值。此外,发现立即对感染者进行隔离对于抗击和控制疾病传播非常重要。而且,对于系统参数的特殊情况,时间延迟不会影响疾病的渐近行为。最后,通过数值模拟验证了所提模型的理论分析。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/237d/7984509/7a7370c2825e/12190_2021_1515_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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