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人口与气候变化:人口学家之间的共识与分歧

Population and Climate Change: Consensus and Dissensus among Demographers.

作者信息

van Dalen Hendrik P, Henkens Kène

机构信息

Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI-KNAW), P.O. Box 11650, NL-2502 AR The Hague, The Netherlands.

Tilburg School of Economics and Management (TISEM), Tilburg University, P.O. Box 90153, NL-5000 LE Tilburg, The Netherlands.

出版信息

Eur J Popul. 2021 Mar 25;37(3):551-567. doi: 10.1007/s10680-021-09580-6. eCollection 2021 Jul.

DOI:10.1007/s10680-021-09580-6
PMID:33785976
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7993440/
Abstract

What role does population play in thinking about the problem of climate change and some of its solutions? In a survey conducted between February and April 2020, we asked European demographers to state their views on the relationship between climate change and population developments, and asked them to rate their concern about climate change and other socio-demographic issues. We found that climate change is at the top of the list of demographers' concerns, but that their sense of urgency with respect to taking action to redress global warming is not matched by their belief that population policy can make a crucial difference in reducing CO emissions: demographers are highly divided on the question whether the global population size should be reduced to lower CO emissions, as well as on the question whether family planning is an effective policy instrument.

摘要

在思考气候变化问题及其一些解决方案时,人口起到了什么作用?在2020年2月至4月进行的一项调查中,我们请欧洲人口统计学家阐述他们对气候变化与人口发展之间关系的看法,并请他们对气候变化及其他社会人口问题的关切程度进行评分。我们发现,气候变化在人口统计学家的关切事项中位居首位,但他们采取行动应对全球变暖的紧迫感,与他们认为人口政策能在减少二氧化碳排放方面发挥关键作用的信念并不匹配:人口统计学家在全球人口规模是否应减少以降低二氧化碳排放这一问题上,以及在计划生育是否是一项有效政策工具这一问题上,存在很大分歧。

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本文引用的文献

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When is fertility too low or too high? Population policy preferences of demographers around the world.生育率过低或过高时该怎么办?世界各地人口统计学家的人口政策偏好。
Popul Stud (Camb). 2021 Jul;75(2):289-303. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1784986. Epub 2020 Jul 22.
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Modeling migration patterns in the USA under sea level rise.海平面上升下美国的移民模式建模。
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