School of Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Department of Economics, Hazara University Mansehra, Mansehra, Pakistan.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Aug;28(31):41780-41793. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-13455-y. Epub 2021 Mar 31.
Global warming is one of the most serious environmental problems that the world faces today. Millions of human lives are at risk, hence the subject has gained enormous attention within academia and the research arena. Literature shows that the primary cause of global climate change or global warming is carbon (CO) emissions. In the literature, a number of studies have investigated the factors affecting the overall level of carbon emission. However, in recent years, consumption-based carbon emissions have occupied the center stage in research related to international trade and environmental concerns. The recently emerged idea of carbon emissions based on consumption differs from conventional accounting (i.e., carbon emissions based on production) in that it highlights the importance of international trade in national carbon emissions. Unlike the previous studies that examined the symmetric effect of international trade on consumption-based carbon emission, the present study examines the asymmetric effect of international trade on consumption-based carbon emissions of emerging economies. To get empirical estimates, the study applies a Nonlinear Panel Autoregressive Distributive Lag (NPARDL) approach. The estimates show that both in the short and long run, a positive shock in exports significantly reduces consumption-based carbon emissions in developing economies. Whereas, a negative shock in exports has an insignificant impact on carbon emissions. For imports, the results show that, over time, positive shocks in imports significantly increase consumption-based carbon emissions, while the impact of negative shocks is insignificant. Finally, it is recommended for the policymakers to target the export industries for relevant policy interventions, which are less polluting but crucial for economic growth.
全球变暖是当今世界面临的最严重的环境问题之一。数百万人的生命处于危险之中，因此这个问题在学术界和研究领域引起了极大的关注。文献表明，全球气候变化或全球变暖的主要原因是碳排放（CO）。在文献中，许多研究调查了影响碳排放总体水平的因素。然而，近年来，基于消费的碳排放在国际贸易和环境问题研究中占据了中心地位。最近出现的基于消费的碳排放概念与传统的基于生产的碳排放核算不同，它强调了国际贸易在国家碳排放中的重要性。与之前研究国际贸易对消费碳排放的对称影响不同，本研究检验了国际贸易对新兴经济体消费碳排放的非对称影响。为了获得经验估计，本研究采用了非线性面板自回归分布滞后（NPARDL）方法。估计结果表明，无论是短期还是长期，出口的正冲击都会显著降低发展中经济体的基于消费的碳排放。而出口的负冲击对碳排放没有显著影响。对于进口，结果表明，随着时间的推移，进口的正冲击会显著增加基于消费的碳排放，而负冲击的影响则不显著。最后，建议政策制定者针对出口行业进行相关政策干预，这些行业污染较少，但对经济增长至关重要。
