Canton of Zurich, Directorate of Justice and the Interior, Office of Corrections, Zurich, Switzerland / Department of Psychology, University of Konstanz, Germany.
Canton of Zurich, Directorate of Justice and the Interior, Office of Corrections, Zurich, Switzerland / Division of Prison Health, Geneva University Hospitals and University of Geneva, Thônex, Switzerland.
Swiss Med Wkly. 2021 Apr 1;151:w20462. doi: 10.4414/smw.2021.20462. eCollection 2021 Mar 15.
Although many studies have investigated the influence of personal characteristics on recidivism, knowledge about the impact of correctional policies remains limited. The present study adds to this debate by investigating the effect of the dualistic system of custodial sanctions in Switzerland over time. Specifically, we: (1) tested the influence that different types of custodial sanctions – sentences (offering regular prison treatment) and measures (offering crime-related rehabilitation programmes) – have on reconviction rates; and (2) forecasted future reconviction rates to estimate their value in the year 2020.
National level data from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office were collected, including 3-year reconviction rates after release from custody and the number of persons serving custodial sentences and measures. A time series framework was used for the analyses, which included data available from 1988 to 2013 (n = 26 years).
The number of persons serving custodial sentences had no effect on recidivism (p = 0.582); however, a higher number of persons serving custodial measures was significantly associated with a decrease in recidivism (p = 0.003). For the year 2020, a reconviction rate of 28% (range 23–33%) was predicted.
Custodial measures seem to be associated with a reduction in recidivism. However, owing to the indeterminate time associated with some custodial measures, often at the cost of the prisoners’ rights and the criminal justice system, future studies are needed to determine the optimal serving time for custodial measures.
尽管许多研究已经调查了个人特征对累犯的影响，但关于矫正政策影响的知识仍然有限。本研究通过调查瑞士监禁制裁的二元制度随时间的影响，为这一争论增添了新的内容。具体而言，我们：（1）测试了不同类型的监禁制裁（提供常规监狱待遇的判决）和措施（提供与犯罪有关的康复方案）对再定罪率的影响；（2）预测未来的再定罪率，以估计其在 2020 年的价值。
收集了来自瑞士联邦统计局的国家级数据，包括释放后 3 年内的再定罪率以及服监禁判决和措施的人数。分析采用时间序列框架，包括 1988 年至 2013 年（26 年）的数据。
服刑人数对累犯没有影响（p = 0.582）；然而，服刑人数的增加与累犯的减少显著相关（p = 0.003）。对于 2020 年，预计再定罪率为 28%（范围 23%-33%）。
监禁措施似乎与累犯减少有关。然而，由于一些监禁措施的时间不确定，通常会损害囚犯的权利和刑事司法系统，因此需要进一步研究以确定监禁措施的最佳服刑时间。
