Ribeiro Junior Dilson B, Werneck Francisco Z, Oliveira Hélder Z, Panza Patrícia S, Ibáñez Sergio J, Vianna Jeferson M
Faculty of Physical Education and Sports, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora, Brazil.
Sports School, Federal University of Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, Brazil.
Front Psychol. 2021 Mar 16;12:617563. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2021.617563. eCollection 2021.
This study examined individual, task, and environmental constraints that influence the career progression of youth Brazilian elite basketball players and the probability of reaching (NBB) and to determine if the association of the relative age effect (RAE) is a key factor in the career progression. The sample consisted of 4,692 male players who were registered to participate in at least one U15, U17, or U22 youth Brazilian basketball championship between 2004 and 2018. Athletes who reached a high-performance level were coded like NBB players (9.6%). The birthdates, height, body mass, playing position, geographic region, club, competition category, and team performance were retrieved from the official data archive of the Brazilian Basketball Confederation and the National Basketball League. The maturity status was estimated using the predicted age at peak height velocity. A binary logistic regression examined the influence of each characteristic on the probability of a youth Brazilian basketball player to reach the NBB. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the associated area under the curve (AUC) were used to assess the discriminant ability of the model. The taller and younger players not selected early into national teams, without specialization by playing position, who participated in U22 national championship, migrated to the southeast region, and remained in the formation process over time have a greater chance to reach the NBB. The ROC curve demonstrated an AUC of 93%. A combination of individual, task, and environmental characteristics influences the sport career of a young Brazilian basketball player in reaching the NBB. Further, early-maturing athletes have a greater chance to reach higher performances. RAE influences lower-level categories, but not a "NBB player's" career progression. The coaches, stakeholders, and practitioners should perform a holistic evaluation of sport talent in terms of a constraint-based theoretical model with the aim of avoiding bias produced by the maturational status and RAE in the youth Brazilian elite basketball.
本研究考察了影响巴西青年精英篮球运动员职业发展以及进入巴西国家篮球联赛（NBB）概率的个人、任务和环境限制因素，并确定相对年龄效应（RAE）的关联是否是职业发展的关键因素。样本包括4692名男性运动员，他们在2004年至2018年期间注册参加了至少一项巴西U15、U17或U22青年篮球锦标赛。达到高水平的运动员被编码为NBB球员（9.6%）。出生日期、身高、体重、比赛位置、地理区域、俱乐部、比赛类别和球队成绩均从巴西篮球联合会和国家篮球联赛的官方数据档案中获取。使用预测的身高增长峰值年龄来估计成熟状态。二元逻辑回归分析了每个特征对巴西青年篮球运动员进入NBB概率的影响。采用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线及相关曲线下面积（AUC）来评估模型的判别能力。未被国家队早期选中、没有按比赛位置进行专项训练、参加U22全国锦标赛、迁移到东南部地区并随着时间推移仍处于成长过程中的更高大、更年轻的球员有更大机会进入NBB。ROC曲线显示AUC为93%。个人、任务和环境特征的综合作用影响着年轻巴西篮球运动员进入NBB的运动生涯。此外，早熟运动员有更大机会取得更高成绩。RAE影响较低水平的类别，但不影响“NBB球员”的职业发展。教练、利益相关者和从业者应根据基于限制因素的理论模型对体育人才进行全面评估，以避免巴西青年精英篮球中成熟状态和RAE产生的偏差。
