Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 2BN, UK.
Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Federal University of Pelotas, Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul 96020-220, Brazil.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Mar 28;18(7):3509. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18073509.
Experimental studies support the conventional belief that people behave more aggressively whilst under the influence of alcohol. To examine how these experimental findings manifest in real life situations, this study uses a method for estimating evidence for causality with observational data-'situational decomposition' to examine the association between alcohol consumption and crime in young adults from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Self-report questionnaires were completed at age 24 years to assess typical alcohol consumption and frequency, participation in fighting, shoplifting and vandalism in the previous year, and whether these crimes were committed under the influence of alcohol. Situational decomposition compares the strength of two associations, (1) the between alcohol consumption and crime (sober or intoxicated) versus (2) the association between alcohol consumption and crime committed while sober. There was an association between typical alcohol consumption and total crime for fighting [OR (95% CI): 1.47 (1.29, 1.67)], shoplifting [OR (95% CI): 1.25 (1.12, 1.40)], and vandalism [OR (95% CI): 1.33 (1.12, 1.57)]. The associations for both fighting and shoplifting had a small causal component (with the association for sober crime slightly smaller than the association for total crime). However, the association for vandalism had a larger causal component.
实验研究支持了人们普遍认为的观点，即在饮酒后人们的行为会更加具有攻击性。为了研究这些实验结果在现实生活中的表现，本研究使用了一种基于观察数据的因果关系评估方法——“情境分解”，来检验年轻人饮酒与犯罪之间的关系。该研究使用了来自阿冯纵向父母和儿童研究的纵向数据。在 24 岁时，参与者完成了自我报告问卷，以评估其在过去一年中的典型饮酒量和饮酒频率、参与打架、商店行窃和故意破坏行为，以及这些犯罪行为是否是在饮酒的影响下发生的。情境分解比较了两种关联的强度：（1）饮酒与犯罪（清醒或醉酒）之间的关联，与（2）饮酒与清醒时犯罪之间的关联。在典型饮酒与打架[比值比（95%置信区间）：1.47（1.29, 1.67）]、商店行窃[比值比（95%置信区间）：1.25（1.12, 1.40）]和故意破坏[比值比（95%置信区间）：1.33（1.12, 1.57）]之间存在关联。对于打架和商店行窃这两种关联，都存在一个较小的因果部分（清醒犯罪的关联略小于总犯罪的关联）。然而，故意破坏的关联则具有更大的因果部分。
