College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Hubei University of Arts and Science, Xiangyang 441053, China.
Institute of County Economic Development & Rural Revitalization Strategy, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Feb 8;18(4):1617. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18041617.
The COVID-19 epidemic has become a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Thus, this sudden health incident has brought great risk and pressure to the city with dense population flow. A deep understanding of the migration characteristics and laws of the urban population in China will play a very positive role in the prevention and control of the epidemic situation. Based on Baidu location-based service (LBS) big data, using complex networks method and geographic visualization tools, this paper explores the spatial structure evolution of population flow network (PFN) in 368 cities of China under different traffic control situations. Effective distance models and linear regression models were established to analyze how the population flow across cities affects the spread of the epidemic. Our findings show that: (1) the scope of population flow is closely related to the administrative level of the city and the traffic control policies in various cities which adjust with the epidemic situation; The PFN mainly presents the hierarchical structure dominated by the urban hierarchy and the regional isolation structure adjacent to the geographical location.(2) through the analysis network topology structure of PFN, it is found that only the first stage has a large clustering coefficient and a relatively short average path length, which conforms to the characteristics of small world network. The epidemic situation has a great impact on the network topology in other stages, and the network structure tends to be centralized. (3) The overall migration scale of the whole country decreased by 36.85% compared with the same period of last year's lunar calendar, and a further reduction of 78.52% in the nationwide traffic control stage after the festival. (4) Finally, based on the comparison of the effective distance and the spatial distance from the Wuhan to other destination cities, it is demonstrated that there is a higher correlation between the effective distance and the epidemic spread both in Hubei province and the whole country.
新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情已构成国际关注的突发公共卫生事件。因此,这一突发卫生事件给人口流动密集的城市带来了巨大的风险和压力。深入了解中国城市人口的迁移特征和规律,将对疫情防控起到非常积极的作用。本文基于百度位置服务(LBS)大数据,采用复杂网络方法和地理可视化工具,探讨了不同交通管制情境下中国 368 个城市人口流动网络(PFN)的空间结构演化。建立有效距离模型和线性回归模型,分析城市间人口流动如何影响疫情传播。研究结果表明:(1)人口流动范围与城市行政级别密切相关,且各城市的交通管制政策随疫情进行调整;PFN 主要呈现以城市等级为主体、地理位置临近为区域隔离的层级结构。(2)通过对 PFN 的网络拓扑结构分析发现,仅第一阶段具有较大的聚类系数和较短的平均路径长度,符合小世界网络的特征。其他阶段的疫情对网络拓扑结构影响较大,网络结构趋于集中。(3)与去年同期农历相比,全国整体迁移规模下降 36.85%,节日后全国交通管制阶段进一步下降 78.52%。(4)最后,通过比较武汉与其他目的地城市的有效距离和空间距离,验证了有效距离与湖北省乃至全国疫情传播具有更高的相关性。