Abou-Shaara Hossam, Alashaal Sara A, Hosni Eslam M, Nasser Mohamed G, Ansari Mohammad J, Alharbi Sulaiman Ali
Department of Plant Protection, Faculty of Agriculture, Damanhour University, Damanhour 22516, Egypt.
Entomology Department, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11566, Egypt.
Insects. 2021 Mar 24;12(4):275. doi: 10.3390/insects12040275.
Some beetle species can attack honeybee colonies, causing severe damage to beekeeping. These pests include , which is also known as the Large Hive Beetle (LHB). This beetle is native to Sub-Saharan Africa and has recently also been recorded in some parts of North Africa. It feeds mainly on young bee larvae and stored food within the colonies, causing severe damage to weak colonies. The present work sheds light on the current and future distribution (from 2050 to 2070) of this beetle in Africa and South Europe using species distribution modeling. Maxent was used to model the invasion of LHB. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 126 and 585 were used to model the future distribution of LHB. The Maxent models showed satisfactory results with a high Area Under Curve (AUC) value (0.85 ± 0.02). Furthermore, the True Skill Statistics (TSS) value was equal to 0.87. The current and future maps showed a high risk of invasion because of temperature variation in most of the parts of North Africa and South Europe. The maps also predicted the future invasion of LHB into other countries, mainly through southern Europe. These predictive risk maps will help quarantine authorities in highly relevant countries to prevent the expansion of this pest outside of its natural range.
一些甲虫物种会攻击蜂群，给养蜂业造成严重损失。这些害虫包括大蜂螨，也被称为大蜂巢甲虫（LHB）。这种甲虫原产于撒哈拉以南非洲，最近在北非的一些地区也有记录。它主要以蜂群中的幼蜂幼虫和储存的食物为食，对弱小蜂群造成严重损害。目前的研究利用物种分布模型揭示了这种甲虫在非洲和南欧当前及未来（2050年至2070年）的分布情况。使用最大熵模型（Maxent）对大蜂巢甲虫的入侵进行建模。共享社会经济路径（SSPs）126和585被用于模拟大蜂巢甲虫的未来分布。最大熵模型显示出令人满意的结果，曲线下面积（AUC）值较高（0.85±0.02）。此外，真技能统计（TSS）值等于0.87。当前和未来的地图显示，由于北非和南欧大部分地区的温度变化，存在很高的入侵风险。这些地图还预测了大蜂巢甲虫未来将主要通过南欧入侵其他国家。这些预测风险地图将有助于相关国家的检疫部门防止这种害虫在其自然分布范围之外扩散。
