Nanchang Institute of Science and Technology, Nanchang, 330108, Jiangxi, China.
Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang, 330077, Jiangxi, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Aug;28(32):43443-43458. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-13819-4. Epub 2021 Apr 8.
This paper takes energy consumption PM emission as research object, and quantitatively analyzes the PM emission level in Hunan and Guangdong provinces from 2012 to 2017. We build a PM emission decomposition model divided by five sectors, including industry, transportation, construction, resident, and other, and use attribution method and Tapio decoupling index to analyze the relationship between economic development and PM emission level. The results show that (1) the difference in PM emissions between the two provinces appeared in 2015; (2) the contribution rate of total PM emissions is 83.1%, and coal consumption is the determine factor of PM emissions; industry is the main source of sector contribution with rate of 70.91%; (3) Guangdong's pollution control capacity is much higher than that of Hunan, while Hunan's PM marginal emission-reduction potential is much higher than that of Guangdong; (4) economic growth is the first increasing emission reason of PM emission changes, while the intensity of industrial energy consumption is the first reduction emission reason; (5) there is a big difference between the economic development of the two provinces and the decoupling of PM pollution.
本文以能源消费 PM 排放为研究对象，定量分析了 2012 年至 2017 年湖南省和广东省的 PM 排放水平。我们构建了一个按五个部门（工业、交通、建筑、居民和其他）划分的 PM 排放分解模型，并采用归因方法和 Tapio 脱钩指数分析了经济发展与 PM 排放水平之间的关系。结果表明：（1）两省之间的 PM 排放差异出现在 2015 年；（2）总 PM 排放量的贡献率为 83.1%，煤炭消耗是 PM 排放的决定因素，工业是部门贡献的主要来源，贡献率为 70.91%；（3）广东的污染控制能力远高于湖南，而湖南的 PM 边际减排潜力远高于广东；（4）经济增长是 PM 排放变化的首要增排原因，而工业能源消费强度则是首要减排原因；（5）两省的经济发展与 PM 污染的脱钩存在较大差异。
