Predicting high-risk areas for African swine fever spread at the wild-domestic pig interface in Ontario.

The probability of disease transmission among livestock premises via spillover from wildlife vectors depends on interacting ecological, demographic, and behavioural variables. Wild pigs (Sus scrofa) act as vectors and reservoirs of many diseases, including African Swine Fever (ASF), a highly lethal and contagious viral disease that affects both wild and domestic swine. Wild pigs play a significant role in the spread of ASF in geographic locations where the disease is present. Planning and preparedness will ensure that swift action can be taken to control ASF if it is introduced into North America. We used a network to predict the highest risk areas for ASF spread in Ontario, Canada given the distribution of wild pig sightings and other risk factors for wild pig presence and movement on the landscape. We used network nodes to represent the presence of domestic pig farms in a defined area, and we weighted network edges by the probability of ASF virus movement between nodes via movement of wild pigs. Our network models predicted that central Ontario has relatively high network closeness, suggesting that this area has a relatively high risk of virus exposure. These highly connected areas tended to also have the highest domestic pig farm density within a node. Central and eastern Ontario had the highest predicted network betweenness, suggesting that these areas are important for controlling virus flow across the province. We detected 10 communities or clusters within the overall network, where nodes were highly connected locally and relatively less connected to the rest of the network. Predicting areas with a high risk of exposure to the ASF virus due to wild pig movement in Ontario will guide managers on where to focus surveillance for ASF in the wild pig population and where to heighten biosecurity within commercial and backyard pig farms, ensuring that managers are prepared to act quickly to limit spread of ASF if the virus is introduced.