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厄尔尼诺现象与滑坡影响的全球关联。

Global connections between El Nino and landslide impacts.

机构信息

Hydrological Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, 8800 Greenbelt Road, Greenbelt, MD, USA.

Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, USA.

出版信息

Nat Commun. 2021 Apr 15;12(1):2262. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-22398-4.

Abstract

El Nino is a critical part of global inter-annual climate variability, and the intensity of El Nino has major implications for rainfall-induced natural hazards in many vulnerable countries. The impact of landslides triggered by rainfall is likely to be modulated by the strength of El Nino, but the nature of this connection and the places where it is most relevant remains unconstrained. Here we combine new satellite rainfall data with a global landslide exposure model to show that El Nino has far-reaching effects on landslide impacts to people and infrastructure. We find that the impact of El Nino on landslide exposure can be greater in parts of Southeast Asia and Latin America than that due to seasonal rainfall variability. These findings improve our understanding of hazard variability around the world and can assist disaster mitigation efforts on seasonal timescales.

摘要

厄尔尼诺现象是全球年际气候变化的关键部分,厄尔尼诺现象的强度对许多脆弱国家因降雨引发的自然灾害有重大影响。降雨引发的滑坡的影响可能受到厄尔尼诺现象强度的调节,但这种联系的性质及其最相关的地方仍然不受限制。在这里,我们结合新的卫星降雨数据和全球滑坡暴露模型,表明厄尔尼诺现象对人与基础设施的滑坡影响有深远的影响。我们发现,厄尔尼诺现象对滑坡暴露的影响在东南亚和拉丁美洲部分地区可能比季节性降雨变化的影响更大。这些发现增进了我们对世界各地灾害变化的了解,并可以协助季节性时间尺度上的灾害缓解工作。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b57f/8050240/2428f91acfaa/41467_2021_22398_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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