Matsusue S, Kashihara S, Koizumi S
Department of Abdominal Surgery, Tenri Hospital, Nara, Japan.
Jpn J Surg. 1988 Jan;18(1):18-22. doi: 10.1007/BF02470841.
A multivariate probit analysis was used to develop a prognostic scoring system known as the Prognostic Index (PI), which consisted of age, pulse rate, blood urea nitrogen, serum albumin, serum cholesterol and serum potassium. This PI accurately predicted the severity and mortality of 83 surgical patients with septic shock caused by gastrointestinal diseases, who were admitted to Tenri Hospital, Nara, Japan from 1975 to 1981 (internal check), and also that of 25 other patients, examined from 1982 to 1983 (external check). As the prognostic predictive model provides a prompt and easy prediction of how severe the patients' state is, it has proved to be very useful to our surgical staff for managing critically ill patients.
采用多变量概率单位分析来开发一种称为预后指数（PI）的预后评分系统，该系统由年龄、脉搏率、血尿素氮、血清白蛋白、血清胆固醇和血清钾组成。该PI准确预测了1975年至1981年期间入住日本奈良天理医院的83例因胃肠道疾病引起感染性休克的外科患者的严重程度和死亡率（内部核查），以及1982年至1983年期间检查的另外25例患者的严重程度和死亡率（外部核查）。由于该预后预测模型能够迅速、简便地预测患者病情的严重程度，已证明对我们外科医护人员管理重症患者非常有用。
