Charrahy Zabihollah, Yaghoobi-Ershadi Mohammad Reza, Shirzadi Mohammad Reza, Akhavan Amir Ahmad, Rassi Yavar, Hosseini Seyedeh Zohreh, Webb Nathaniel J, Haque Ubydul, Bozorg Omid Faramarz, Hanafi-Bojd Ahmad Ali
Department of Natural Resources, School of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Department of Medical Entomology & Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2022 May;69(3):1506-1520. doi: 10.1111/tbed.14115. Epub 2021 May 5.
Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) is an important vector-borne disease with an incidence of 15.8 cases per 100,000 people in Iran in 2019. Despite all efforts to control the disease, ZCL has expanded into new areas during the last decades. The aim of this study was to predict the best ecological niches for both vectors and reservoirs of ZCL under climate change scenarios in Iran. Several online scientific databases were searched. In this study, various scientific sources (Google Scholar, PubMed, SID, Ovid Medline, Web of Science, Irandoc, Magiran) were searched. The inclusion criteria for this study included all records with spatial information about vectors and reservoirs of ZCL which were published between 1980 and 2019. The bioclimatic data were downloaded from online databases. MaxEnt model was used to predict the ecological niches for each species under two climate change scenarios in two periods: the 2030s and 2050s. The results obtained from the model were analysed in ArcMap to find the vulnerability of different provinces for the establishment of ZCL foci. The area under the curve (AUC) for all models was >0.8, which suggests the models are able to make an accurate prediction. The distribution of all studied species in different climatic conditions showed changes. The variables affecting each of the studied species are introduced in the article. The predicted maps show that by 2050 there will be more suitable areas for the co-occurrence of vector and reservoir(s) of ZCL in Iran compared to the current climate condition and RCP2.6 scenario. An area in the northwest of Iran is predicted to have suitable environmental conditions for both vectors and reservoirs of ZCL, although the disease has not yet been reported in this area. These areas should be considered for field studies to confirm these results and to prevent the establishment of new ZCL foci in Iran.
人兽共患皮肤利什曼病（ZCL）是一种重要的媒介传播疾病，2019年伊朗的发病率为每10万人中有15.8例。尽管为控制该病付出了种种努力，但在过去几十年中，ZCL已扩展到新的地区。本研究的目的是预测在伊朗气候变化情景下ZCL的媒介和宿主的最佳生态位。搜索了几个在线科学数据库。在本研究中，搜索了各种科学资源（谷歌学术、PubMed、SID、Ovid Medline、科学网、伊朗文献数据库、Magiran）。本研究的纳入标准包括1980年至2019年期间发表的所有具有ZCL媒介和宿主空间信息的记录。生物气候数据从在线数据库下载。使用MaxEnt模型在两个时期（2030年代和2050年代）的两种气候变化情景下预测每个物种的生态位。在ArcMap中分析模型得到的结果，以找出不同省份建立ZCL疫源地的脆弱性。所有模型的曲线下面积（AUC）均>0.8，这表明模型能够做出准确的预测。所有研究物种在不同气候条件下的分布都发生了变化。文章中介绍了影响每个研究物种的变量。预测地图显示，到2050年，与当前气候条件和RCP2.6情景相比，伊朗将有更多适合ZCL媒介和宿主共存的区域。伊朗西北部的一个地区预计对ZCL的媒介和宿主都有适宜的环境条件，尽管该地区尚未报告过该疾病。应考虑在这些地区进行实地研究，以证实这些结果，并防止在伊朗建立新的ZCL疫源地。
