Department of Medical Entomology and Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
J Med Entomol. 2020 Jan 9;57(1):50-64. doi: 10.1093/jme/tjz131.
Climate change is an important factor affecting the dynamics of the vectors population and, hence, the risk of vector-borne diseases. This study aimed to predict the environmental suitability for malaria vectors in Iran under climate change scenarios in 2030s and 2050s. Literature search was performed to find documents on the spatial distribution of Anopheles stephensi Liston, 1901, Anopheles culicifacies s.l. Giles, 1901, Anopheles fluviatilis s.l. James, 1902, Anopheles superpictus s.l. Grassi, 1899, Anopheles dthali Patton, 1905, Anopheles maculipennis s.l. Meigen, 1818, and Anopheles sacharovi Favre, 1903 (Diptera: Culicidae) published between 1970 and 2017. The bioclimatic data under three climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathway 2.6 [RCP2.6], RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and MaxEnt model were used to predict the ecological niches for each species. Comparison between the two study periods under the three scenarios for each species revealed that RCP8.5 would reduce the area at risk for An. culicifacies s.l., An. dthali and An. superpictus s.l. in the 2050s compared to the 2030s, but the reverse will be induced by RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. For An. fluviatilis s.l., RCP2.6 will reduce the risk areas in the 2050s, whereas an increase is expected under the two other scenarios. Moreover, all scenarios would decrease the high-risk areas of An. maculipennis s.l. in the 2050s. For An. sacharovi, RCP2.6 would increase its high-risk areas, whereas RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 would decrease its exposure. The high-risk area of An. stephensi is expected to increase under RCP8.5 in the 2030s and RCP4.5 in 2050s, but it will be almost unchanged or reduced under other scenarios.
气候变化是影响病媒种群动态的一个重要因素，从而影响了媒介传播疾病的风险。本研究旨在预测伊朗在 2030 年代和 2050 年代气候变化情景下疟疾媒介的环境适宜性。通过文献检索，查找了 1970 年至 2017 年间发表的有关 Anopheles stephensi Liston，1901、Anopheles culicifacies s.l. Giles，1901、Anopheles fluviatilis s.l. James，1902、Anopheles superpictus s.l. Grassi，1899、Anopheles dthali Patton，1905、Anopheles maculipennis s.l. Meigen，1818 和 Anopheles sacharovi Favre，1903（双翅目：蚊科）的空间分布文献。使用生物气候数据和 MaxEnt 模型，在三种气候变化情景（代表性浓度路径 2.6 [RCP2.6]、RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5）下预测了每种物种的生态位。比较三种情景下两个研究期内每个物种的情况表明，与 2030 年相比，RCP8.5 将降低 2050 年 An. culicifacies s.l.、An. dthali 和 An. superpictus s.l.的风险面积，但 RCP2.6 和 RCP4.5 情景将产生相反的效果。对于 An. fluviatilis s.l.，RCP2.6 将减少 2050 年的风险区，而其他两种情景则预计会增加。此外，所有情景都将降低 2050 年 An. maculipennis s.l.的高风险区。对于 An. sacharovi，RCP2.6 将增加其高风险区，而 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 将减少其暴露。在 2030 年 RCP8.5 和 2050 年 RCP4.5 下，An. stephensi 的高风险区预计将增加，但在其他情景下几乎不变或减少。
