Soneji Samir, Beltrán-Sánchez Hiram, Yang Jae Won, Mann Caroline
University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, Rosenau Hall, 135 Dauer Drive, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA.
University of California, Los Angeles, California USA.
Genus. 2021;77(1):7. doi: 10.1186/s41118-021-00115-9. Epub 2021 Apr 16.
As of 31 January 2021, 63.9 million cases and 1.4 million deaths had been reported in Europe and North America, which accounted for 62.5% and 62.4% of the global total, respectively. Comparing the level of mortality across countries has proven difficult because of inherent limitations in the most commonly cited measures (e.g., case-fatality rates). We collected the cumulative number of confirmed deaths from COVID-19 by age in 2020 from the L'Institut National d'études Démographiques (INED) database and Statistics Canada for 15 European and North American countries. We calculated age-specific death rates and age-standardized death rates (ASDR) for each country over a 1-year period from 6 February 2020 (date of first COVID-19 death in Europe and North America) to 5 February 2021 using established demographic methods. We estimated that COVID-19 was the second leading cause of death behind cancer in England and Wales and France and the third leading cause of death behind cancer and heart disease in nine countries including the US. Countries with higher all-cause mortality prior to the COVID-19 experienced higher COVID-19 mortality than countries with lower all-cause mortality prior to the pandemic. The COVID-19 ASDR varied substantially within country (e.g., a 5-fold difference among the highest and lowest mortality states in Germany). Consistently strong public health measures may have lessened the level of mortality for some European and North American countries. In contrast, many of the largest countries and economies in these regions may continue to experience a high mortality level because of poor implementation and adherence to such measures.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41118-021-00115-9.
截至2021年1月31日，欧洲和北美报告了6390万例病例和140万例死亡，分别占全球总数的62.5%和62.4%。由于最常引用的指标（如病死率）存在固有局限性，比较各国的死亡率水平已被证明是困难的。我们从法国国家人口研究所（INED）数据库和加拿大统计局收集了2020年15个欧美国家按年龄划分的新冠肺炎确诊死亡累计数。我们使用既定的人口统计学方法，计算了从2020年2月6日（欧美首例新冠肺炎死亡日期）到2021年2月5日这1年期间每个国家的年龄别死亡率和年龄标准化死亡率（ASDR）。我们估计，在英格兰、威尔士和法国，新冠肺炎是仅次于癌症的第二大死亡原因，在美国等9个国家，新冠肺炎是仅次于癌症和心脏病的第三大死亡原因。新冠肺炎疫情之前全因死亡率较高的国家，其新冠肺炎死亡率高于疫情之前全因死亡率较低的国家。新冠肺炎的年龄标准化死亡率在各国之间差异很大（例如，德国死亡率最高和最低的州之间相差5倍）。持续有力的公共卫生措施可能降低了一些欧美国家的死亡率水平。相比之下，这些地区的许多大国和经济体可能由于此类措施执行不力和依从性差，继续面临高死亡率。
在线版本包含可在10.1186/s41118-021-00115-9获取的补充材料。
