Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, P.O. Box 5000, FI-90014, Oulu, Finland.
Eur J Epidemiol. 2021 May;36(5):539-543. doi: 10.1007/s10654-021-00744-6. Epub 2021 Apr 21.
This paper examines whether the anomalous summer peak in deaths from coronary heart disease (CHD) in Finland could be attributed to adverse effects of the Midsummer festival and alcohol consumption during the festival. Daily deaths from CHD and alcohol poisoning in Finland, 1961-2014, that occurred during the 7 days centering on Midsummer Day were analysed in relation to deaths during 14 to 4 days before and 4 to 14 after Midsummer Day. Daily counts of deaths from CHD among persons aged 35-64 years were regressed on days around the Midsummer period by negative binomial regression. Mortality from CHD was highest on Midsummer Day (RR 1.25 (95% confidence interval 1.12-1.31), one day after the peak in deaths from alcohol poisonings. RR for CHD on Midsummer Day was particulary high (RR = 1.43; 1.09-1.86) in the 2000s, 30% of deaths being attributable to that day. In conclusion, the anomalous and prominent summer peak in deaths from CHD in Finland is an adverse consequence of the Midsummer festival. The most likely underlying reason is heavy alcohol consumption during the festival period, especially on Midsummer Eve. In the 2000s, one third of deaths from CHD on Midsummer Day are preventable.
本文探讨了芬兰冠心病(CHD)夏季死亡人数异常高峰是否归因于仲夏节的不利影响和节日期间的酒精摄入。分析了 1961-2014 年芬兰仲夏节前后 7 天内 CHD 和酒精中毒死亡人数与仲夏节前 14-4 天和后 4-14 天的死亡人数之间的关系。通过负二项回归,对 35-64 岁人群中 CHD 每日死亡人数与仲夏期间的天数进行回归。CHD 死亡率在仲夏节当天最高(RR 1.25(95%置信区间 1.12-1.31),紧随其后的是酒精中毒死亡人数的高峰。在 21 世纪,CHD 在仲夏节当天的发病率特别高(RR=1.43;1.09-1.86),其中 30%的死亡归因于当天。总之,芬兰 CHD 夏季死亡人数异常高峰是仲夏节的不利后果。最可能的潜在原因是节日期间酒精摄入量大,尤其是仲夏节前夜。在 21 世纪,仲夏节当天 CHD 死亡中有三分之一是可以预防的。