University Centre for Rural Health, School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, New South Wales.
Health Research Institute, University of Canberra, Australian Capital Territory.
Aust N Z J Public Health. 2021 Oct;45(5):504-505. doi: 10.1111/1753-6405.13107. Epub 2021 Apr 26.
To determine if global warming has changed the balance of summer and winter deaths in Australia.
Counts of summer and winter cause-specific deaths of subjects aged 55 and over for the years 1968-2018 were entered into a Poisson time-series regression. Analysis was stratified by states and territories of Australia, by sex, age and cause of death (respiratory, cardiovascular, and renal diseases). The warmest and coldest subsets of seasons were compared.
Warming over 51 years was associated with a long-term increase in the ratio of summer to winter mortality from 0.73 in the summer of 1969 to 0.83 in the summer of 2018. The increase occurred faster in years that were warmer than average.
Mortality in the warmest and coldest times of the year is converging as annual average temperatures rise. Implications for public health: If climate change continues, deaths in the hottest months will come to dominate the burden of mortality in Australia.
确定全球变暖是否改变了澳大利亚夏季和冬季死亡人数的平衡。
将 1968 年至 2018 年 55 岁及以上人群夏季和冬季特定死因的死亡人数输入泊松时间序列回归。分析按澳大利亚各州和地区、性别、年龄和死因（呼吸、心血管和肾脏疾病）进行分层。比较了最温暖和最寒冷的季节子集。
51 年来的变暖与夏季与冬季死亡率之比的长期增加有关，从 1969 年夏季的 0.73 增加到 2018 年夏季的 0.83。在比平均温度高的年份，这种增加速度更快。
随着年平均气温的升高，一年中最温暖和最寒冷时期的死亡率正在趋同。对公共卫生的影响：如果气候变化继续下去，最热月份的死亡人数将开始主导澳大利亚的死亡人数负担。
