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2015 - 2020年意大利死亡率的统计分析以及与新冠疫情报告伤亡情况的比较。

A Statistical Analysis of Death Rates in Italy for the Years 2015-2020 and a Comparison with the Casualties Reported from the COVID-19 Pandemic.

作者信息

Bonifazi Gianluca, Lista Luca, Menasce Dario, Mezzetto Mauro, Oliva Alberto, Pedrini Daniele, Spighi Roberto, Zoccoli Antonio

机构信息

Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell'Informazione, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Via Brecce Bianche, 12, 60131 Ancona, Italy.

INFN Sezione di Bologna, Viale C. Berti Pichat, 6/2, 40127 Bologna, Italy.

出版信息

Infect Dis Rep. 2021 Apr 1;13(2):285-301. doi: 10.3390/idr13020030.

DOI:10.3390/idr13020030
PMID:33915702
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8167797/
Abstract

We analyze the data about casualties in Italy in the period 1 January 2015 to 30 September 2020 released by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). The aim of this article was the description of a statistically robust methodology to extract quantitative values for the seasonal excesses of deaths featured by the data, accompanying them with correct estimates of the relative uncertainties. We will describe the advantages of the method adopted with respect to others listed in literature. The data exhibit a clear sinusoidal behavior, whose fit allows for a robust subtraction of the baseline trend of casualties in Italy, with a surplus of mortality in correspondence to the flu epidemics in winter and to the hottest periods in summer. The overall quality of the fit to the data turns out to be very good, an indication of the validity of the chosen model. We discuss the trend of casualties in Italy by different classes of ages and for the different genders. We finally compare the data-subtracted casualties, as reported by ISTAT, with those reported by the Italian Department for Civil Protection (DPC) relative to the deaths directly attributed to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19), and we point out the differences in the two samples, collected under different assumptions.

摘要

我们分析了意大利国家统计局（ISTAT）发布的2015年1月1日至2020年9月30日期间意大利的伤亡数据。本文的目的是描述一种统计上稳健的方法，以提取数据中死亡季节性超额的定量值，并对相对不确定性进行正确估计。我们将描述所采用方法相对于文献中列出的其他方法的优点。数据呈现出明显的正弦行为，其拟合允许对意大利伤亡的基线趋势进行稳健扣除，冬季流感流行和夏季最热时期对应有死亡率过剩。数据拟合的整体质量非常好，表明所选模型的有效性。我们讨论了意大利不同年龄段和不同性别的伤亡趋势。最后，我们将ISTAT报告的扣除数据后的伤亡情况与意大利民防部（DPC）报告的与严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2型（SARS-CoV-2）引起的2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）直接相关的死亡情况进行比较，并指出在不同假设下收集的两个样本中的差异。

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