Predictive Factors for RAI-Refractory Disease and Short Overall Survival in PDTC.

BACKGROUND

The clinical phenotype of poorly differentiated thyroid cancer (PDTC) can vary substantially. We aim to evaluate risk factors for radioiodine refractory (RAI-R) disease and reduced overall survival (OS).

METHODS

We retrospectively screened our institutional database for PDTC patients. For the assessment of RAI-R disease, we included patients who underwent dual imaging with F-FDG-PET and I-PET/I scintigraphy that met the internal standard of care. We tested primary size, extrathyroidal extension (ETE), and age >55 years as risk factors for RAI-R disease at initial diagnosis and during the disease course using uni- and multivariate analyses. We tested metabolic tumor volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis (TLG) on F-FDG-PET, and the progression of stimulated thyroglobulin within 4-6 months of initial radioiodine therapy as prognostic markers for OS.

RESULTS

Size of primary >40 mm and ETE were significant predictors of RAI-R disease in the course of disease in univariate (81% vs. 27%, = 0.001; 89% vs. 33%, < 0.001) and multivariate analyses. Primary tumor size was an excellent predictor of RAI-R disease (AUC = 0.90). TLG/MTV > upper quartile and early thyroglobulin progression were significantly associated with shorter median OS (29.0 months vs. 56.9 months, < 0.05; 57.8 months vs. not reached < 0.005, respectively).

DISCUSSION

PDTC patients, especially those with additional risk factors, should be assessed for RAI-R disease at initial diagnosis and in the course of disease, allowing for early implementation of multimodal treatment. Primary tumor size >40 mm, ETE, and age >55 are significant risk factors for RAI-R disease. High MTV/TLG is a significant risk factor for premature death and can help identify patients requiring intervention.