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通过计算空间温度评估儿童登革热负担：一种使用遥感技术的方法学途径

The Burden of Dengue in Children by Calculating Spatial Temperature: A Methodological Approach Using Remote Sensing Techniques.

作者信息

Mendoza-Cano Oliver, Rincón-Avalos Pedro, Watson Verity, Khouakhi Abdou, Cruz Jesús López-de la, Ruiz-Montero Angelica Patricia, Nava-Garibaldi Cynthia Monique, Lopez-Rojas Mario, Murillo-Zamora Efrén

机构信息

Facultad de Ingeniería Civil, Universidad de Colima, km. 9 Carretera Colima-Coquimatlán, Col. Jardines del Llano, Coquimatlán 28400, Colima, Mexico.

Health Economics Research Unit, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB25 2ZD, UK.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Apr 16;18(8):4230. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18084230.

DOI:10.3390/ijerph18084230
PMID:33923602
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8073896/
Abstract

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever is one of the most important arboviral diseases. Surface temperature versus dengue burden in tropical environments can provide valuable information that can be adapted in future measurements to improve health policies.

METHODS

A methodological approach using Daymet-V3 provided estimates of daily weather parameters. A Python code developed by us extracted the median temperature from the urban regions of Colima State (207.3 km) in Mexico. JointPoint regression models computed the mean temperature-adjusted average annual percentage of change (AAPC) in disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates (per 100,000) due to dengue in Colima State among school-aged (5-14 years old) children.

RESULTS

Primary outcomes were average temperature in urban areas and cumulative dengue burden in DALYs in the school-aged population. A model from 1990 to 2017 medium surface temperature with DALY rates was performed. The increase in DALYs rate was 64% (95% CI, 44-87%), and it seemed to depend on the 2000-2009 estimates (AAPC = 185%, 95% CI 18-588).

CONCLUSION

From our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate surface temperature and to model it through an extensive period with health economics calculations in a specific subset of the Latin-American endemic population for dengue epidemics.

摘要

背景

登革热是最重要的虫媒病毒疾病之一。热带环境中地表温度与登革热负担的关系能够提供有价值的信息，这些信息可用于未来的测量，以改进卫生政策。

方法

一种使用Daymet-V3的方法提供了每日天气参数的估计值。我们开发的Python代码从墨西哥科利马州（207.3公里）的城市地区提取了中位数温度。联合点回归模型计算了科利马州学龄儿童（5至14岁）因登革热导致的伤残调整生命年（DALY）率（每10万人）中经平均温度调整后的年均变化百分比（AAPC）。

结果

主要结果是城市地区的平均温度和学龄人口中DALY的累积登革热负担。对1990年至2017年中等地表温度与DALY率进行了建模。DALY率的增加为64%（95%CI，44-87%），似乎取决于2000-2009年的估计值（AAPC = 185%，95%CI 18-588）。

结论

据我们所知，这是第一项评估地表温度并通过对拉丁美洲登革热流行地方病特定亚群进行长期健康经济学计算来对其进行建模的研究。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/821e/8073896/4ec7751ba0bf/ijerph-18-04230-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/821e/8073896/23fc8a5e110b/ijerph-18-04230-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/821e/8073896/55d65d93a60b/ijerph-18-04230-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/821e/8073896/988dcfe742e9/ijerph-18-04230-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/821e/8073896/4ec7751ba0bf/ijerph-18-04230-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/821e/8073896/23fc8a5e110b/ijerph-18-04230-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/821e/8073896/55d65d93a60b/ijerph-18-04230-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/821e/8073896/988dcfe742e9/ijerph-18-04230-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/821e/8073896/4ec7751ba0bf/ijerph-18-04230-g004.jpg

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