COVID-19 大流行对波兰总死亡率的影响。
Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Total Mortality in Poland.
机构信息
Department of Epidemiology, Poland Faculty of Medical Sciences in Katowice, Medical University of Silesia in Katowice, 40-752 Katowice, Poland.
出版信息
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Apr 20;18(8):4388. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18084388.
BACKGROUND
According to published data the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 is underestimated between 30 and 80%.
AIM
The aim of this study is to assess the impact of COVID-19 on total mortality of Poland and the Silesian voivodship.
METHODS
Secondary epidemiological data on COVID-19 deaths were obtained from the Ministry of Health registry and data on total mortality were gathered from the National Statistical Office and Registry Office in Poland. Three scenarios were used to estimated COVID-19 deaths: real number + an extra 30%, 60%, and 70% excess total deaths.
RESULTS
In 2020, there were 73,254, 64,584, and 67,677 excess deaths in comparison to 2017-2019, respectively. For the Silesian voivodship, it was 8339, 7946, and 8701, respectively. The total mean increase in deaths was 16% for the whole country and the Silesian voivodship. The simulation for 30% extra COVID-19 deaths gave COVID-19 mortality equal to 12.5%; = 50,708 deaths, for extra 60%; 17.9% = 72,866 and for extra 70%; 19.7% = 80,251 for Poland; and 11.9% ( = 6072), 17.2% ( = 8740), 24.2% ( = 12,297), respectively, for the Silesian voivodship.
CONCLUSIONS
The participation of COVID-19 in total deaths should not exceed 20% for Poland and 24% for the Silesian voivodship in 2020.
背景
根据已发表的数据，COVID-19 导致的死亡人数被低估了 30%至 80%。
目的
本研究旨在评估 COVID-19 对波兰和西里西亚省总死亡率的影响。
方法
从卫生部登记处获得 COVID-19 死亡的二次流行病学数据，并从波兰国家统计局和登记处收集总死亡率数据。使用三种方案估计 COVID-19 死亡人数：实际人数+额外 30%、60%和 70%的超额总死亡人数。
结果
2020 年，与 2017-2019 年相比，分别有 73254、64584 和 67677 人超额死亡。对于西里西亚省，分别为 8339、7946 和 8701。全国和西里西亚省的总死亡人数平均增加了 16%。模拟额外 30%的 COVID-19 死亡人数导致 COVID-19 死亡率为 12.5%； = 50708 例，额外 60%；17.9% = 72866 例，额外 70%；19.7% = 80251 例，波兰；11.9%（ = 6072），17.2%（ = 8740），24.2%（ = 12297），西里西亚省。
结论
2020 年，COVID-19 在波兰总死亡率中的占比不应超过 20%，在西里西亚省的占比不应超过 24%。
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