Associate Professor, Department of Economics, The University of Auckland.
N Z Med J. 2021 Apr 16;134(1533):46-60.
To model the statistical relationships between mortality rates and macroeconomic conditions in New Zealand over the post-war era.
Time series methods are used to model statistical relationships between the macroeconomic unemployment rate and mortality rates across different age groups and morbidities.
Decreases in the age-adjusted mortality rate are two-and-a-half times as large during episodic increases in the national unemployment rate (p = 0.01). This short-run procyclicality is driven primarily by mortality among the elderly (66+) and middle-aged (36-65). There is also strong evidence that assault and self-inflicted harm mortality rates are countercyclical and have a long-run relationship with the national unemployment rate (p < 0.001 and p < 0.001).
Mortality exhibits both short-run procyclical and long-run countercyclical features. Accelerated reductions in elderly mortality during periods of rising unemployment are consistent with overseas evidence that tight labour markets have negative impacts on aged care. However, further research is necessary to uncover the causal channels, if any, that underpin this correlation in New Zealand data. Long-run variation in mortality due to violence, such as assaults and suicide, is closely linked to employment conditions, indicating that policy responses to violence and suicide should not preclude addressing a potential lack of employment opportunities.
在后二战时代，对新西兰的死亡率与宏观经济状况之间的统计关系进行建模。
使用时间序列方法来对不同年龄组和不同发病情况的宏观经济失业率与死亡率之间的统计关系进行建模。
在全国失业率（p=0.01）周期性上升期间，年龄调整后死亡率下降了两倍半。这种短期顺周期性主要是由老年人（66 岁以上）和中年人（36-65 岁）的死亡率驱动的。还有强有力的证据表明，袭击和自我伤害死亡率是反周期性的，与全国失业率有长期关系（p<0.001 和 p<0.001）。
死亡率表现出短期顺周期性和长期反周期性特征。在失业率上升期间，老年人口死亡率的加速下降与海外证据一致，即劳动力市场紧张对老年护理产生负面影响。然而，需要进一步的研究来揭示新西兰数据中这种相关性的因果关系（如果有的话）。由于暴力（如袭击和自杀）导致的死亡率的长期变化与就业状况密切相关，这表明针对暴力和自杀的政策反应不应排除解决潜在的就业机会不足的问题。
