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枪击探测技术对 1999-2016 年大型都会县枪支凶杀案和逮捕的影响:纵向分析。

Impact of ShotSpotter Technology on Firearm Homicides and Arrests Among Large Metropolitan Counties: a Longitudinal Analysis, 1999-2016.

机构信息

Center for Gun Policy and Research, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 624 N. Wolfe St., Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA.

Injury Prevention Center, Connecticut Children's Medical Center, Hartford, CT, USA.

出版信息

J Urban Health. 2021 Oct;98(5):609-621. doi: 10.1007/s11524-021-00515-4. Epub 2021 Apr 30.

Abstract

Over the past decade, large urban counties have implemented ShotSpotter, a gun fire detection technology, across the USA. It uses acoustic listening devices to identify discharged firearms' locations. We examined the effect of ShotSpotter with a pooled, cross-sectional time-series analysis within the 68 large metropolitan counties in the USA from 1999 to 2016. We identified ShotSpotter implementation years through publicly available media. We used a Poisson distribution to model the impact of ShotSpotter on firearm homicides, murder arrests, and weapons arrests. ShotSpotter did not display protective effects for all outcomes. Counties in states with permit-to-purchase firearm laws saw a 15% reduction in firearm homicide incidence rates; counties in states with right-to-carry laws saw a 21% increase in firearm homicide incidence rates. Results suggest that implementing ShotSpotter technology has no significant impact on firearm-related homicides or arrest outcomes. Policy solutions may represent a more cost-effective measure to reduce urban firearm violence.

摘要

在过去的十年中,美国的大城市县已经实施了 ShotSpotter,这是一种枪支检测技术。它使用声学监听设备来识别已发射枪支的位置。我们在美国 1999 年至 2016 年的 68 个大都市区内进行了汇总、跨时段时间序列分析,以检验 ShotSpotter 的效果。我们通过公开的媒体资料确定了 ShotSpotter 的实施年份。我们使用泊松分布模型来模拟 ShotSpotter 对枪支杀人案、谋杀逮捕和武器逮捕的影响。ShotSpotter 并没有对所有结果都显示出保护作用。在实施枪支购买许可法的州,枪支杀人案发生率降低了 15%;在实施携带枪支权利法的州,枪支杀人案发生率上升了 21%。结果表明,实施 ShotSpotter 技术对与枪支有关的杀人或逮捕结果没有显著影响。政策解决方案可能是减少城市枪支暴力的更具成本效益的措施。

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