Development Research Group, Department of Politics and Public Administration University of Konstanz, Germany.
Development Research Group, Department of Politics and Public Administration University of Konstanz, Germany.
Accid Anal Prev. 2021 Jul;157:106142. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2021.106142. Epub 2021 Apr 30.
In this paper we determine the burden on society of fatalities resulting from road traffic injuries (RTIs) in South Africa. We express the burden in terms of reduced life expectancy and years of potential life lost (YPLL). Our main data source is the Injury Mortality Survey (IMS), a retrospective descriptive study carried out in South Africa. Using the mortality rates by sex and age from the IMS we calculate actual life expectancy at birth. In our counterfactual analysis we assume a 15 % reduction in road fatalities per year over a period of 10 years. A comparison of the estimated actual and counterfactual life expectancies suggests that the average gain in life expectancy at birth would be 0.58 years. Since the overwhelming majority of road traffic fatalities are male (75.7 %), there is a considerable gender difference. Men would gain on average 0.85 years while women would gain 0.30 years in life expectancy, closing the gender gap in life expectancy by about 14 %. We then discuss how a reduction in RTIs could be achieved. South Africa's legislation addresses several of the important aspects of road safety (e.g. seat belt use, drink driving restrictions, speed limits, infrastructure improvements), however, enforcement is relatively weak and should be improved. There are a raft of measures that have been well researched in other countries, most interventions aim to modify the behaviour of road users and have been found to be cost effective. In addition to stricter enforcement, evidence from social science suggests that compliance could be increased through a change in social norms regarding road usage.
本文旨在评估南非道路交通伤害（RTI）导致的死亡给社会带来的负担。我们用减损的预期寿命和潜在寿命损失年数（YPLL）来表示这种负担。主要数据来源于南非的损伤死亡率调查（IMS），这是一项回顾性描述性研究。利用 IMS 的性别和年龄死亡率数据，我们计算出实际的出生时预期寿命。在反事实分析中，我们假设在 10 年内每年道路交通死亡人数减少 15%。通过对实际预期寿命和反事实预期寿命的估计进行比较，我们发现出生时预期寿命平均会增加 0.58 年。由于绝大多数道路交通死亡是男性（75.7%），因此存在相当大的性别差异。男性的预期寿命平均会增加 0.85 年，而女性会增加 0.30 年，使预期寿命的性别差距缩小约 14%。随后我们探讨了如何减少 RTI 的发生。南非的立法涵盖了道路安全的几个重要方面（例如，使用安全带、限制酒后驾车、限速、基础设施改善），然而，执法力度相对较弱，应该得到加强。在其他国家已经对大量措施进行了深入研究，大多数干预措施旨在改变道路使用者的行为，并且已经被证明是具有成本效益的。除了加强执法力度外，社会科学证据表明，通过改变关于道路使用的社会规范，可以提高合规性。
