Aix Marseille Univ., CNRS, CPT, Turing Center for Living Systems, Université de Toulon, Marseille, France.
Tokyo Tech World Research Hub Initiative (WRHI), Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan.
J R Soc Interface. 2021 May;18(178):20201000. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2020.1000. Epub 2021 May 5.
Non-pharmaceutical interventions are crucial to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic and contain re-emergence phenomena. Targeted measures such as case isolation and contact tracing can alleviate the societal cost of lock-downs by containing the spread where and when it occurs. To assess the relative and combined impact of manual contact tracing (MCT) and digital (app-based) contact tracing, we feed a compartmental model for COVID-19 with high-resolution datasets describing contacts between individuals in several contexts. We show that the benefit (epidemic size reduction) is generically linear in the fraction of contacts recalled during MCT and quadratic in the app adoption, with no threshold effect. The cost (number of quarantines) versus benefit curve has a characteristic parabolic shape, independent of the type of tracing, with a potentially high benefit and low cost if app adoption and MCT efficiency are high enough. Benefits are higher and the cost lower if the epidemic reproductive number is lower, showing the importance of combining tracing with additional mitigation measures. The observed phenomenology is qualitatively robust across datasets and parameters. We moreover obtain analytically similar results on simplified models.
非药物干预对于减轻 COVID-19 大流行和遏制再次出现的现象至关重要。通过在发生传播的地点和时间进行控制，可以缓解封锁对社会造成的代价。为了评估手动接触者追踪（MCT）和数字（基于应用程序）接触者追踪的相对和综合影响，我们使用描述在几种情况下个体之间接触的高分辨率数据集为 COVID-19 进行了一个隔室模型。我们表明，在 MCT 期间回忆起的接触者的比例对（流行病规模的减少）具有一般性的线性影响，而对应用程序的采用率具有二次影响，没有阈值效应。成本（隔离人数）与收益曲线具有特征性的抛物线形状，与追踪类型无关，如果应用程序的采用率和 MCT 的效率足够高，则具有潜在的高收益和低成本。如果传染病繁殖数较低，则收益更高，成本更低，这表明将追踪与其他缓解措施结合起来的重要性。观察到的现象在数据集中和参数中具有定性的稳健性。我们在简化模型上还获得了类似的分析结果。
