Department of Health Economics and Health Services Research, Hamburg Centre for Health Economics, University Medical Centre Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany.
Psychogeriatrics. 2021 Jul;21(4):571-576. doi: 10.1111/psyg.12707. Epub 2021 May 9.
Loneliness and social isolation both have been linked to morbidity and mortality. However, there is a lack of studies investigating whether these factors are associated with expectations of longevity. Therefore, we aimed to clarify this association.
Cross-sectional data were taken from a nationally representative sample of middle-aged and older individuals (analytical sample, n = 4857). Well-established scales were used to measure loneliness and social isolation. Equally to other large cohort studies, expectations of longevity were assessed using the question 'What age do you think you will live to?' It was adjusted for various socioeconomic and health-related factors.
After adjusting for various socioeconomic and health-related covariates, multiple linear regressions showed that both loneliness (total sample: β = -0.97, P < 0.001; men: β = -1.04, P < 0.001; women: β = -0.97, P < 0.01) and social isolation (total sample: β = -0.93, P < 0.001; men: β = -0.86, P < 0.001; women: β = -0.91, P < 0.01) were associated with lower expectations of longevity in the total sample and stratified by gender. Furthermore, lower expectations of longevity were consistently associated with younger age (β = 0.32, P < 0.001), being retired (β = -2.39, P < 0.001), not being employed (β = -1.97, P < 0.001), worse self-rated health (β = -1.31, P < 0.001), and a higher number of chronic illnesses (β = -0.38, P < 0.001) in the total sample, and in both genders.
Even after adjusting for various covariates, findings still indicate an association between both loneliness and social isolation and markedly lower expectations of longevity. Future studies based on longitudinal data are required to gain further insights.
孤独和社会隔离都与发病率和死亡率有关。然而，目前缺乏研究来调查这些因素是否与对长寿的期望有关。因此，我们旨在阐明这种关联。
本研究使用来自全国代表性的中年和老年人样本（分析样本，n=4857）的横断面数据。使用成熟的量表来测量孤独感和社会隔离。与其他大型队列研究一样，使用问题“您认为自己能活到多少岁？”来评估对长寿的期望。它调整了各种社会经济和健康相关因素。
在调整了各种社会经济和健康相关的协变量后，多元线性回归显示，孤独感（总样本：β=-0.97，P<0.001；男性：β=-1.04，P<0.001；女性：β=-0.97，P<0.01）和社会隔离（总样本：β=-0.93，P<0.001；男性：β=-0.86，P<0.001；女性：β=-0.91，P<0.01）与总样本以及按性别分层的较低的长寿期望相关。此外，较低的长寿期望与较年轻的年龄（β=0.32，P<0.001）、退休（β=-2.39，P<0.001）、未就业（β=-1.97，P<0.001）、自我评估健康状况较差（β=-1.31，P<0.001）以及总样本中慢性疾病数量较多（β=-0.38，P<0.001）相关，在两性中均如此。
即使在调整了各种协变量后，研究结果仍表明孤独感和社会隔离与对长寿的期望明显降低之间存在关联。需要基于纵向数据的进一步研究来获得更深入的了解。
