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新冠病毒-19与登革热合并感染新变体在复杂网络上的建模、分析与预测

Modeling, analysis and prediction of new variants of covid-19 and dengue co-infection on complex network.

作者信息

Rehman Attiq Ul, Singh Ram, Agarwal Praveen

机构信息

Department of Mathematical Sciences, BGSB University, Rajouri, J&K 185234, India.

Department of Mathematics, Anand International College of Engineering, Jaipur 303012, India.

出版信息

Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2021 Sep;150:111008. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111008. Epub 2021 May 4.

Abstract

Recently, four new strains of SARS-COV-2 were reported in different countries which are mutants and considered as 70 more dangerous than the existing covid-19 virus. In this paper, hybrid mathematical models of new strains and co-infection in Caputo, Caputo-Fabrizio, and Atangana-Baleanu are presented. The idea behind this co-infection modeling is that, as per medical reports, both dengue and covid-19 have similar symptoms at the early stages. Our aim is to evaluate and predict the transmission dynamics of both deadly viruses. The qualitative study via stability analysis is discussed at equilibria and reproduction number is computed. For the numerical purpose, Adams-Bashforth-Moulton and Newton methods are employed to obtain the approximate solutions of the proposed model. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to assessed the effects of various biological parameters and rates of transmission on the dynamics of both viruses. We also compared our results with some reported data against infected, recovered, and death cases.

摘要

最近,不同国家报告了四种新型严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-COV-2)毒株,它们都是变种毒株,被认为比现有的新冠病毒危险70倍。本文提出了在卡普托(Caputo)、卡普托-法布里齐奥(Caputo-Fabrizio)和阿坦加纳-巴莱亚努(Atangana-Baleanu)意义下新毒株和共同感染的混合数学模型。这种共同感染建模背后的想法是,根据医学报告,登革热和新冠病毒在早期阶段有相似的症状。我们的目的是评估和预测这两种致命病毒的传播动态。通过稳定性分析进行定性研究,在平衡点处进行讨论并计算再生数。出于数值计算目的,采用亚当斯-巴什福思-莫尔顿(Adams-Bashforth-Moulton)方法和牛顿方法来获得所提出模型的近似解。进行敏感性分析以评估各种生物学参数和传播率对两种病毒动态的影响。我们还将我们的结果与一些关于感染、康复和死亡病例的报告数据进行了比较。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f0b/8096208/bc764334bfd0/gr1_lrg.jpg

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