Omame Andrew, Abbas Mujahid
Department of Mathematics, Federal University of Technology, Owerri, Nigeria.
Abdus Salam School of Mathematical Sciences, Government College University, Katchery Road, Lahore 54000, Pakistan.
Physica A. 2023 Apr 1;615:128607. doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2023.128607. Epub 2023 Feb 24.
Clinical reports have shown that chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) patients co-infected with SARS-CoV-2 have a higher risk of complications with liver disease than patients without SARS-CoV-2. In this work, a co-dynamical model is designed for SARS-CoV-2 and HBV which incorporates incident infection with the dual diseases. Existence of boundary and co-existence endemic equilibria are proved. The occurrence of backward bifurcation, in the absence and presence of incident co-infection, is investigated through the proposed model. It is noted that in the absence of incident co-infection, backward bifurcation is not observed in the model. However, incident co-infection triggers this phenomenon. For a special case of the study, the disease free and endemic equilibria are shown to be globally asymptotically stable. To contain the spread of both infections in case of an endemic situation, the time dependent controls are incorporated in the model. Also, global sensitivity analysis is carried out by using appropriate ranges of the parameter values which helps to assess their level of sensitivity with reference to the reproduction numbers and the infected components of the model. Finally, numerical assessment of the control system using various intervention strategies is performed, and reached at the conclusion that enhanced preventive efforts against incident co-infection could remarkably control the co-circulation of both SARS-CoV-2 and HBV.
临床报告显示,与未感染新冠病毒的患者相比,同时感染严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)的慢性乙型肝炎病毒(HBV)患者发生肝病并发症的风险更高。在这项工作中,设计了一个针对SARS-CoV-2和HBV的共动力学模型,该模型纳入了两种疾病的新发感染情况。证明了边界平衡点和共存地方病平衡点的存在性。通过所提出的模型研究了在不存在和存在新发共感染情况下的反向分岔现象。值得注意的是,在不存在新发共感染的情况下,模型中未观察到反向分岔。然而,新发共感染会引发这种现象。对于该研究的一个特殊情况,无病平衡点和地方病平衡点被证明是全局渐近稳定的。为了在地方病流行情况下控制两种感染的传播,在模型中纳入了时间依赖控制。此外,通过使用适当的参数值范围进行全局敏感性分析,这有助于评估它们相对于繁殖数和模型感染组分的敏感性水平。最后,对使用各种干预策略的控制系统进行了数值评估,得出结论:加强针对新发共感染的预防措施可以显著控制SARS-CoV-2和HBV的共同传播。