Department of Research, African Sustainable Development Research Consortium (ASDRC), Nairobi, Kenya.
Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa.
F1000Res. 2020 Oct 15;9:1247. doi: 10.12688/f1000research.26975.1. eCollection 2020.
This study estimates the total discounted value of human lives lost (TDVHL) due to COVID-19 in France as of 14 September 2020. The human capital approach (HCA) model was used to estimate the TDVHL of the 30,916 human lives lost due to COVID-19 in France; i.e., assuming a discount rate of 3% and the national average life expectancy at birth of 83.13 years. To test the robustness of the estimated TDVHL, the model was rerun (a) using 5% and 10% discount rates, while holding the French average life expectancy constant; and (b) consecutively substituting national life expectancy with the world average life expectancy of 73.2 years and the world highest life expectancy of 88.17 years. The human lives lost had a TDVHL of Int$10,492,290,194, and an average value of Int$339,381 per human life lost. Rerun of the HCA model with 5% and 10% discount rates decreased TDVHL by Int$1,304,764,602 (12.4%) and Int$3,506,938,312 (33%), respectively. Re-calculation of the model with the world average life expectancy decreased the TDVHL by Int$7,750,187,267 (73.87%). Contrastingly, re-estimation of the model with the world's highest life expectancy augmented TDVHL by Int$3,744,263,463 (35.7%). The average discounted economic value per human life lost due to COVID-19 of Int$339,381 is 8-fold the France gross domestic product per person. Such evidence constitutes an additional argument for health policy makers when making a case for increased investment to optimise France's International Health Regulation capacities and coverage of essential health services, and safely managed water and sanitation services.
本研究估算了截至 2020 年 9 月 14 日法国因 COVID-19 而丧失的人类生命的总贴现价值（TDVHL）。使用人力资本方法（HCA）模型估算了 30916 例 COVID-19 死亡病例所导致的 TDVHL，即假设贴现率为 3%，法国出生时的平均预期寿命为 83.13 岁。为了检验估计的 TDVHL 的稳健性，模型（a）在保持法国平均预期寿命不变的情况下，分别使用 5%和 10%的贴现率进行了重新运行；（b）依次用世界平均预期寿命 73.2 岁和世界最高预期寿命 88.17 岁替代国家预期寿命。丧失的人类生命的 TDVHL 为 10492290194 国际元，平均每位死者的价值为 339381 国际元。HCA 模型的重新运行，5%和 10%的贴现率分别使 TDVHL 减少了 1304764602 国际元（12.4%）和 3506938312 国际元（33%）。用世界平均预期寿命重新计算模型，使 TDVHL 减少了 7750187267 国际元（73.87%）。相反，用世界最高预期寿命重新估算模型，使 TDVHL 增加了 3744263463 国际元（35.7%）。COVID-19 导致的每位死者的平均贴现经济价值为 339381 国际元，是法国人均国内生产总值的 8 倍。这些证据为卫生政策制定者提供了更多的论据，使他们有理由增加投资，以优化法国的《国际卫生条例》能力和基本卫生服务的覆盖范围，并安全地管理供水和环境卫生服务。
