Musango Laurent, Nundoochan Ajoy, Kirigia Joses Muthuri
World Health Organization, Country Office for Mauritius, Port Louis, Mauritius.
African Sustainable Development Research Consortium (ASDRC), Nairobi, Kenya.
Front Public Health. 2020 Nov 10;8:604394. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.604394. eCollection 2020.
Mauritius along with other 12 countries in the African Region was identified at the early start of the COVID-19 pandemic as being at high risk due to high volume of international travel, high prevalence of non-communicable diseases and co-morbidities, high population density and significant share of population over 60 years (16%). The objective of this study was to estimate the total discounted money value of human life losses ( ) associated with COVID-19 in Mauritius. The human capital approach (HCA) was used to estimate the of the 10 human life losses linked with COVID-19 in Mauritius as of 16 October 2020. The HCA model was estimated with the national life expectancy of 75.51 years and a discount rate of 3%. A sensitivity analysis was performed assuming (a) 5 and 10% discount rates, and (b) the average world life expectancy of 73.2 years, and the world highest life expectancy of 88.17 years. The money value of human lives lost to COVID-19, at a discounted rate of 3%, had an estimated of Int$ 3,120,689, and an average of Int$ 312,069 per human life lost. Approximately 74% of the accrued to persons aged between 20 and 59 years. Reanalysis of the model with 5 and 10% discount rates, holding national life expectancy constant, reduced the by 19.0 and 45.5%, respectively. Application of the average world life expectancy at 3% discount rate reduced by 13%; and use of the world highest life expectancy at 3% discount rate increased by 50%. The average discounted money value per human life loss associated with COVID-19 is 12-fold the per capita GDP for Mauritius. All measures implemented to prevent widespread community transmission of COVID-19 may have saved the country 837 human lives worth Int$258,080,991. This evidence, conjointly with human rights arguments, calls for increased investments to bridge the existing gaps for achieving universal health coverage by 2030.
在新冠疫情初期,毛里求斯连同非洲区域的其他12个国家被认定为高风险地区,原因包括国际旅行量大、非传染性疾病和合并症患病率高、人口密度高以及60岁以上人口占比显著(16%)。本研究的目的是估计毛里求斯与新冠疫情相关的人类生命损失的总贴现货币价值( )。采用人力资本法(HCA)来估计截至2020年10月16日毛里求斯与新冠疫情相关的10例人类生命损失的 。HCA模型根据75.51岁的国民预期寿命和3%的贴现率进行估计。进行了敏感性分析,假设(a)贴现率为5%和10%,以及(b)世界平均预期寿命73.2岁和世界最高预期寿命88.17岁。以3%的贴现率计算,因新冠疫情失去的人类生命的货币价值估计 为3,120,689国际元,平均每例失去的人类生命为312,069国际元。约74%的 归因于20至59岁的人群。在国民预期寿命不变的情况下,对模型进行贴现率为5%和10%的重新分析, 分别降低了19.0%和45.5%。以3%的贴现率应用世界平均预期寿命使 降低了13%;以3%的贴现率使用世界最高预期寿命使 增加了50%。与新冠疫情相关每例失去的人类生命的平均贴现货币价值是毛里求斯人均国内生产总值的12倍。为防止新冠疫情在社区广泛传播而采取的所有措施可能为该国挽救了837条生命,价值258,080,991国际元。这一证据,连同人权论据,呼吁增加投资,以弥合现有差距,到2030年实现全民健康覆盖。