World Health Organization, Country Office, BP 362 Maison Commune des Nations-Unies, Enceinte Galaxy, Andraharo, Antananarivo, Madagascar.
Faculte de Medecine, d'Antananarivo / Ministere de la Sante publique, Antananarivo, Madagascar.
BMC Public Health. 2024 Nov 27;24(1):3296. doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-20786-1.
As of 3 March 2023, Madagascar had reported 1,422 deaths from COVID-19. Up to now, there hasn't been a study to estimate the Total Present Value of Human Life lost , productivity losses, and potential productivity losses averted through COVID-19 vaccination for use in advocacy. The study reported in this paper aimed to fill these information gaps.
The Human Capital Model (HCM) was used to estimate the , which is the sum of the discounted value of human life losses among individuals in seven different age groups. The Present Value of Human Life for each age group was calculated by multiplying the discount factor, the undiscounted years of life, the non-health gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and the number of COVID-19 deaths in that age group. To test the robustness of the results, the HCM was rerun five times, assuming (i) a 5% discount rate, (ii) a 10% discount rate, (iii) Africa's highest average life expectancy at birth of 78.76 years, (iv) the world's highest life expectancy of 88.17 years, (v) projected excess COVID-19 mortality of 11,418.66 deaths as of 3 March 2023 in Madagascar, and assuming different levels of vaccine coverage: 100%, 70%, 60.93%, and 8.266%.
The 1,422 human lives lost due to COVID-19 had a of Int$ 46,331,412; and an average of Int$ 32,582 per human life. Re-estimation of the HCM, using (i) discount rates of 5% and 10% reduced by 23% and 53%, respectively; (ii) average life expectancies of 78.76 years and 88.17 years increased by 23.7% and 39.5%, respectively; (iii) projected excess COVID-19 mortality of 11,418.66 augmented by 703%. Furthermore, it is estimated that vaccinating 70% of the target population could potentially save the country Int$ 1.1 billion, equivalent to 1.94% of the GDP.
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant health and productivity losses for Madagascar. Optimizing COVID-19 vaccination coverage for the target population could substantially reduce these losses.
截至 2023 年 3 月 3 日，马达加斯加报告了 1422 例 COVID-19 死亡病例。到目前为止，还没有研究估计因 COVID-19 疫苗接种而避免的总生命价值损失、生产力损失和潜在生产力损失，以便用于宣传。本文报道的研究旨在填补这些信息空白。
使用人力资本模型（HCM）估计，这是七个不同年龄组个人生命损失的折现值之和。通过将贴现因子、未贴现的生命年限、非卫生国内生产总值（GDP）人均和该年龄组的 COVID-19 死亡人数相乘，计算出每个年龄组的生命现值。为了检验结果的稳健性，HCM 被重新运行了五次，假设（i）贴现率为 5%，（ii）贴现率为 10%，（iii）非洲出生时的平均预期寿命最高为 78.76 岁，（iv）全球最高预期寿命为 88.17 岁，（v）截至 2023 年 3 月 3 日，马达加斯加预计 COVID-19 超额死亡人数为 11418.66 人，并假设疫苗接种覆盖率为 100%、70%、60.93%和 8.266%。
COVID-19 导致的 1422 人死亡，其总价值为 46331412 国际元；平均每人 32582 国际元。重新估算 HCM，使用（i）贴现率为 5%和 10%，分别减少了 23%和 53%；（ii）平均预期寿命为 78.76 岁和 88.17 岁，分别增加了 23.7%和 39.5%；（iii）预计 COVID-19 超额死亡人数为 11418.66 人，增加了 703%。此外，据估计，为目标人群接种 70%的疫苗可能使该国节省 11 亿美元，相当于 GDP 的 1.94%。
COVID-19 大流行给马达加斯加造成了重大的健康和生产力损失。优化目标人群的 COVID-19 疫苗接种覆盖率可以大大减少这些损失。
